waveformblue


quality posts: 1 Private Messages waveformblue
grahamcrackercoyote wrote:You work for the RAT!?!? [faux shocked reaction on my face]



Careful...names can be deceiving. I went to the Rathaus last year in Nürnberg. There wasn't a single rat in there.

waveformblue


quality posts: 1 Private Messages waveformblue

Anyone who doubts that raymb's cat entries are not formulaic need only look at Schr:odinger's Equation.

Goodbye kitty. On the way to the Reckoning, please take fur-bread with you.

Yep...I still don't get the cat meme.

computermd82


quality posts: 32 Private Messages computermd82
haxrfun wrote:Building on an idea I heard last week, there should be a Woot retirement home. Of course, Nevermore and The Binge would already be in it. Here's how it would work; if a shirt in the woot retirement home is reckoned, it can still be bought for a higher price; say eighteen dollars. However, they would only be available on a certain day of the week. The requirements to get in are to have lasted 100 weeks or sold 35,000 shirts. These shirts are legends and deserve to be honored. Looking into the far future, I see Family Breakfeast making it in one day.



This.

V'Owl Birthday of Celebrations GIVEAWAY!!!!
"And the man in the rain picked up his bag of secrets, and journeyed up the mountainside, far above the clouds. And nothing was ever heard from him again, except for the sound of Tubular Bells."

adorabrooke


quality posts: 1 Private Messages adorabrooke
grahamcrackercoyote wrote:You work for the RAT!?!? [faux shocked reaction on my face]



I do too. =o)

msklzannie


quality posts: 4 Private Messages msklzannie
fidelitate wrote:Was this the first time it didn't direct to the reckoning page?



I think I remember at least once it redirecting to the other shirt sales (pullover sweatshirts and/or whatever they had going on at the time). I believe I bought 2 pullovers that day. I could be wrong about where it redirected to, but the sale did apply that day to the sweatshirts too.

ETA: Looking back at my purchases, that would have been October 11, 2011.

Total woot orders: 189
Bag o.f Crap: 12/25/2010, 1/25/2011, 6/15/2011, 11/9/2011, 12/25/2011, 3/22/3012, 4/26/2012

Narfcake


quality posts: 293 Private Messages Narfcake
grahamcrackercoyote wrote:You work for the RAT!?!? [faux shocked reaction on my face]


Just a project we have down there, that's all.

ochopika


quality posts: 28 Private Messages ochopika

Staff

waveformblue wrote:
Goodbye kitty. On the way to the Reckoning, please take fur-bread with you.



I'm sure that the oven would burn out most of the fur in the bread. Most of it.

missmelis


quality posts: 20 Private Messages missmelis
ochopika wrote:I'm sure that the oven would burn out most of the fur in the bread. Most of it.



Don't take the anti-cat-shirt quips too personally... people who hate cats tend to REALLY hate cats. I have a friend who claims she has a "psychological allergy" to cats. It must be worse than my ACTUAL allergy to cats, because I can at least stand to be around them for a little while.

(I'm not the biggest cat fan myself, but that's mostly because I don't like getting hives.)

The goodness of the true pun is in the direct ratio of its intolerability. - Edgar Allan Poe

lephantman


quality posts: 2 Private Messages lephantman

I'm pretty sure the Bragging Rights percentages are off. 0.87% women's sizes qualifies as most-lady friendly? or perhaps it really is true that over 99% of wooters are male...

lephantman


quality posts: 2 Private Messages lephantman
ochopika wrote:I'm sure that the oven would burn out most of the fur in the bread. Most of it.



this happened to me saturday, none of the hair burned off. it was unpleasant, and not worth the free work.

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
lephantman wrote:I'm pretty sure the Bragging Rights percentages are off. 0.87% women's sizes qualifies as most-lady friendly? or perhaps it really is true that over 99% of wooters are male...



"Women's" is more appropriately titled "Juniors", as if you look at the size charts, All but 1 of them are smaller than a male SMALL, and the Youth 12 is actually larger than Women's Large in the chest. I know few "Women" who would be called "like a 12 year old boy, but taller..."

The fact they sell any shirts to women in the "Women's" size amazes me.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote
adorabrooke wrote:I do too. =o)



I used to! Does that count?

I think the recent trend of the real danger zone extending from 13-22 may become the norm for the near future. Nowadays I don't count any shirt as safe if it's below 12 until 12:02 pm on Monday.

rockymike


quality posts: 16 Private Messages rockymike

Every time I glance at Nevermore under Most Discussed I keep thinking it's in the bottom seven. That's such a tease. Get down there for real!

Yeah, so there's that...

leopoldmozart


quality posts: 7 Private Messages leopoldmozart

Just noticed that ramby currently occupies both the first and last place. Not sure if that means anything.

elfdreamer


quality posts: 3 Private Messages elfdreamer

Oh noes, the shirts are getting shorter? I enjoyed my additional 3/4 inch. It was an additional safeguard against a guy midriff.

Narfcake


quality posts: 293 Private Messages Narfcake

A little over one night, and still peeved with the supplier switch. But maybe it's because #0001 arrived today on an AA tagged blank ... something we're not so likely to see in the future.

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting. Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (1) Lucky at last - (+172) to 6176. Approx. 174.87 real time DSR; 74 Woot-based DSR
2 (2) Shhhhhhh - (+111) to 9115. Approx. 72.56 real time DSR; 58.36 Woot-based DSR
3 (3) Family Portrait - (+60) to 3915. Approx. 54.9 real time DSR; 36.67 Woot-based DSR
4 (7) Nyan's Dream - (+91) to 3012. Approx. 92.71 real time DSR; 32.94 Woot-based DSR
5 (4) Lifetime Achievement Award - (+53) to 3912. Approx. 38.63 real time DSR; 31.07 Woot-based DSR
6 (5) Family Breakfast - (+44) to 13146. Approx. 32.19 real time DSR; 25.89 Woot-based DSR
7 (8) Hey! Listen! - (+42) to 3006. Approx. 46.34 real time DSR; 24.26 Woot-based DSR
8 (6) Playing Koi - (+21) to 3588. Approx. 30.19 real time DSR; 23.15 Woot-based DSR
9 (25) The Artist - (+59) to 2090. Approx. 79.7 real time DSR; 21.47 Woot-based DSR
10 (9) The Binge - (+50) to 55891. Approx. 24.73 real time DSR; 19.89 Woot-based DSR
11 (11) Blending In - (+32) to 1904. Approx. 31.82 real time DSR; 19.79 Woot-based DSR
12 (10) Elements of Life - (+30) to 2310. Approx. 25.5 real time DSR; 19.29 Woot-based DSR
13 (12) Code of Arms - (+22) to 4827. Approx. 22.56 real time DSR; 18.14 Woot-based DSR
14 (13) Hold Still Guys! - (+21) to 3287. Approx. 22.47 real time DSR; 18.07 Woot-based DSR
15 (15) We’re more than famous! - (+35) to 4571. Approx. 22.42 real time DSR; 18.04 Woot-based DSR
16 (20) Nevermore - (+58) to 46449. Approx. 22.34 real time DSR; 17.96 Woot-based DSR
17 (14) Motivation - (+20) to 5897. Approx. 22.02 real time DSR; 17.71 Woot-based DSR
18 (18) Schrödinger’s Equation - (+37) to 7711. Approx. 22.02 real time DSR; 17.71 Woot-based DSR
19 (16) Acquired Taste - (+29) to 21661. Approx. 21.85 real time DSR; 17.57 Woot-based DSR
20 (19) They See Me Rollin' - (+37) to 4264. Approx. 21.89 real time DSR; 17.61 Woot-based DSR
21 (21) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - (+55) to 5652. Approx. 21.85 real time DSR; 17.57 Woot-based DSR
22 (24) The Pen and The Sword - (+42) to 2086. Approx. 31.48 real time DSR; 17.68 Woot-based DSR
23 (17) Makin’ Bread - (+25) to 8418. Approx. 21.71 real time DSR; 17.46 Woot-based DSR
24 (22) Blossom - (+24) to 2054. Approx. 22.16 real time DSR; 16.51 Woot-based DSR
25 (23) Going to a Cheesier Place - (+27) to 1967. Approx. 24.65 real time DSR; 15.94 Woot-based DSR
26 (26) Force Equation - (+32) to 2108. Approx. 28.29 real time DSR; 13.52 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) Best Friends Forever - (+13) to 1547. Approx. 13.34 real time DSR; 7.93 Woot-based DSR
91 (91) A Superbotanical Study - (+33) to 1277. Approx. 32.35 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
92 (92) A Lot Of This Going Around - 2365.

wootabe


quality posts: 0 Private Messages wootabe

I obviously don't come to the Reckoning area much. What the heck is a n-o-o-b?

Also I just like to add that I don't much care for the new shirt tags. It used to be so easy to see the shirt size at a glance. Now I actually have to look close at the tag to see the size of the shirt I'm stealing..umm borrowing.

cmaxelson


quality posts: 0 Private Messages cmaxelson
bounty42 wrote:"Women's" is more appropriately titled "Juniors", as if you look at the size charts, All but 1 of them are smaller than a male SMALL, and the Youth 12 is actually larger than Women's Large in the chest. I know few "Women" who would be called "like a 12 year old boy, but taller..."

The fact they sell any shirts to women in the "Women's" size amazes me.



Hey! I'm frequently compared to a 12 yr old boy... except I'm shorter :-/ And with a cold I sound like one too :D

mdraugh


quality posts: 1 Private Messages mdraugh
waveformblue wrote:Careful...names can be deceiving. I went to the Rathaus last year in Nürnberg. There wasn't a single rat in there.



I know exactly what you mean. A few years ago I went into a cathouse outside Reno, and ... ;^)

mdraugh


quality posts: 1 Private Messages mdraugh
computermd82 wrote:This.



Either that, or since Woot is now doing weekly specials, an occasional "collector's edition" re-release of legendary shirts. Imagine, for instance, It Came Out Of Nowhere offered for one week only on a silver tee. Or Nevermore, once it flies away, re-appearing in a color combination that is more durable as a limited edition item.

Just thinkin' out loud.

sunaness


quality posts: 19 Private Messages sunaness
wootabe wrote:I obviously don't come to the Reckoning area much. What the heck is a n-o-o-b?



It's more of a general internet slang term for new comer. new comer = newbie = newb = n-o-o-b. It was used as a derogatory term for many years but I only play one MMO (SW:TOR) and haven't seen it flung around as an insult yet.

barefoothunter


quality posts: 0 Private Messages barefoothunter

will Acquired Taste get toasted...or is this just a dream

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote
sunaness wrote:It's more of a general internet slang term for new comer. new comer = newbie = newb = n-o-o-b. It was used as a derogatory term for many years but I only play one MMO (SW:TOR) and haven't seen it flung around as an insult yet.



But in shirt.woot parlance, a n-o-o-b is any shirt that's undergoing its first full week in the Reckoning after its debut. Shirts are safe for the remainder of their debut week (Monday through Sunday), but come the following Tuesday they enter the Reckoning. If they don't make it into the top 20 by Monday at noon central time, they're gone come midnight Tuesday morning.

escapecar


quality posts: 16 Private Messages escapecar
barefoothunter wrote:will Acquired Taste get toasted...or is this just a dream



The week is still young...but I can share some educated guesses:

1. The shirts in spots 1-12 right now look safe to me.
2. The Pen and The Sword should move up the list pretty quickly over the next two days. It's safe.
3. Nevermore has some ludicrous sales momentum going right now, I think it's safe.
4. The only shirt that doesn't have a reasonable chance at survival is Best Friends Forever.

Basically, spots 15-26 are all in play right now. If anyone wants a favorite shirt to survive, don't wait for 11:55 on Monday to try and game it.

meepee


quality posts: 33 Private Messages meepee

Nooby cats have infested the reckoning, kicking two older cats out?

5 cats in the reckoning may be too much...

Narfcake


quality posts: 293 Private Messages Narfcake

Just a note, the kids sizes of Shhhhhhh are now showing to be printed on the imports.

aramis525


quality posts: 8 Private Messages aramis525
Narfcake wrote:Just a note, the kids sizes of Shhhhhhh are now showing to be printed on the imports.



If I am reading the sizing charts correctly, kids shirts are all bigger in the chest and all but K4 are longer, correct?

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42

Since I don't see the lights, I'm guessing we made it through a Woot-Off without them hitting the Reckoning this time?

Easy Numbers then! WHEE!!



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

aramis525


quality posts: 8 Private Messages aramis525
bounty42 wrote:Since I don't see the lights, I'm guessing we made it through a Woot-Off without them hitting the Reckoning this time?

Easy Numbers then! WHEE!!



The lights are still there.

blanked


quality posts: 10 Private Messages blanked
aramis525 wrote:The lights are still there.



They didn't mean that the woot off stopped on Woot!, they meant that they didn't do the tshirt lunch sale on shirt.woot!

aramis525


quality posts: 8 Private Messages aramis525
blanked wrote:They didn't mean that the woot off stopped on Woot!, they meant that they didn't do the tshirt lunch sale on shirt.woot!



OHHHH!!!!!

rglee129


quality posts: 28 Private Messages rglee129
cmillard1 wrote:The sales standing and weekly sales imply that Family Breakfast is more likely to follow an Acquired Taste/Unstealthised Ninja trajectory (i.e. last for about a year). I'm basing this on some things I noticed (yesterday) while looking at Reckonings from about a year ago. Shhhhhh is more likely to be the 80-100+ week seller.



Oh boy, I hope you're right! In fact, I've been trying to figure out and predict this sort of thing and I'm absolutely stumped. For example, Lucky's "Run Away!" design sold out at 6,000 and then sold a whole bunch more for a few weeks, and then dropped out of the Reckoning a couple of months later. BUT "Family Breakfast" had similar sales over the first month or so, but hasn't even dropped out of the top 10.

What's the difference? And I don't just mean those two designs, but in general- what makes some designs start off with similar sales patterns, and then the trajectories are so different after a month or two? Maybe there are differences in the initial sales trajectories that I'm not seeing?

grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote

Got the extra PhysicsCat last week, so it looks like I'll go for an extra BreadCat this week!

hippie1981


quality posts: 0 Private Messages hippie1981

Whaaa???? Where did "It Came out of Nowhere" go to? It was always high up on the charts in no danger and now I see it's not there anymore. Guess it went back to whereever it came from. Good think i've been the proud owner of that shirt for quite some time.

cmillard1


quality posts: 6 Private Messages cmillard1
rglee129 wrote:Oh boy, I hope you're right! In fact, I've been trying to figure out and predict this sort of thing and I'm absolutely stumped. For example, Lucky's "Run Away!" design sold out at 6,000 and then sold a whole bunch more for a few weeks, and then dropped out of the Reckoning a couple of months later. BUT "Family Breakfast" had similar sales over the first month or so, but hasn't even dropped out of the top 10.

What's the difference? And I don't just mean those two designs, but in general- what makes some designs start off with similar sales patterns, and then the trajectories are so different after a month or two? Maybe there are differences in the initial sales trajectories that I'm not seeing?



I have a hunch that if someone (possibly myself, eventually) plots up the daily sales for individual shirts, they'll find an exponential decay factor that explains long term shirt sales. Aside from the holidays, a DSR of ~30 will be around the fifth spot. Shirts that can maintain a sales rate above 30 for an extended period of time (i.e. more than two months or so) are going to be around awhile*.

While they were near each other in the rankings, Family Breakfast had a notably higher DSR for much of this time and seems to be "bottoming out" around a DSR of 30, while Run Away! Run Away! bottomed out around 20 (which is near the Reckoning threshold). For comparison, entering Reckoning 230, FB was 2nd, with a DSR greater than 60, and had been on the list for 8 weeks, while RA!RA! was 4th, with a DSR below 40 (note: includes some holiday sales), and had been around for 7 weeks. Their similar positioning in the order masked a significant sales difference.

*Another factor is whether a shirt would be anticipated to receive a boost due to pop culture/nostalgia that is long-term or fleeting (e.g. Star Wars is longer term, while Portal 2 appears to have been more fleeting).

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
cmillard1 wrote:*Another factor is whether a shirt would be anticipated to receive a boost due to pop culture/nostalgia that is long-term or fleeting (e.g. Star Wars is longer term, while Portal 2 appears to have been more fleeting).



I'm betting you're going to see a curve for themed groups too. ie. If there are 2 cat shirts you see more per shirt sales than if there's only 1 cat shirt. But if there are 5 cat shirts, they get fewer per shirt sales than if there's just 1.

There's an old chestnut that McDonalds used to base new restuant locations on the number of curch's within a set radius, and would buy up two lots so as to sell one to the Burger King which based new resturants on "within site of that new McDonalds." Having 2 burger options in poximity increased sales beyond what 1 alone would get.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

escapecar


quality posts: 16 Private Messages escapecar
rglee129 wrote:Oh boy, I hope you're right! In fact, I've been trying to figure out and predict this sort of thing and I'm absolutely stumped. For example, Lucky's "Run Away!" design sold out at 6,000 and then sold a whole bunch more for a few weeks, and then dropped out of the Reckoning a couple of months later. BUT "Family Breakfast" had similar sales over the first month or so, but hasn't even dropped out of the top 10.

What's the difference? And I don't just mean those two designs, but in general- what makes some designs start off with similar sales patterns, and then the trajectories are so different after a month or two? Maybe there are differences in the initial sales trajectories that I'm not seeing?



For the obvious pop culture designs, I think it's the size and passion of the fanbase, and if the joke is easy to see. Hit the right spots, and your shirt will live for a long, long time. (In your example, I think there are many more Star Wars fans willing to wear a funny shirt than Monty Python fans.)

I think that applies to other shirts, as well. Several artists here have fanbases that just about guarantee their shirt makes it through the first week without being reckoned. But does the design have what it takes to attract other buyers? Figure that out, and you'll be rich.

Sometimes, getting Reckoned is just bad luck. Have a bad week of sales at the wrong time, and you could be out two weeks later when the competition is stronger. That's pretty much what happened to Run Away and It Came out of Nowhere last week. 4 or 5 more sales the week ending 2/13, and they're still here while two other shirts aren't. Sometimes shirts that avoid that one critical Reckoning hang on for another couple of months. Or years.

polluxoil


quality posts: 33 Private Messages polluxoil

So five of the newbies have made it out. The question is, does Force Equation have enough acceleration to break the reckoning barrier?

cmillard1


quality posts: 6 Private Messages cmillard1

For Shhhhhh (and now I see why you cared so much for that particular shirt...), I tend to think that Ninjas are immune to the pop culture drop off. I doubt that meme is dying anytime soon.

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
polluxoil wrote:So five of the newbies have made it out. The question is, does Force Equation have enough acceleration to break the reckoning barrier?



Yes.

Remember that Woot uses a "if you don't make any more sales between now and monday" number for ranking. If you look at Nerf's Realtime DSR you'll see it's running in 12th or so at the moment. Now, come Sunday the fight purchases for the 17-22 crowd will start building, forcing force down a bit, but so long as the current sales rate continues, it'll clear the danger zone (late thursday by my guess) and land in the 18-21 range come monday.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."