bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
cmillard1 wrote:For Shhhhhh (and now I see why you cared so much for that particular shirt , I tend to think that Ninjas are immune to the pop culture drop off. I doubt that meme is dying anytime soon.



true, but there seems to be a 3 Ninja limit to the Reckoning.
...
...
I want to make a Highlander joke so badly right now.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

regularshmo


quality posts: 1 Private Messages regularshmo
haxrfun wrote:Building on an idea I heard last week, there should be a Woot retirement home. Of course, Nevermore and The Binge would already be in it. Here's how it would work; if a shirt in the woot retirement home is reckoned, it can still be bought for a higher price; say eighteen dollars. However, they would only be available on a certain day of the week. The requirements to get in are to have lasted 100 weeks or sold 35,000 shirts. These shirts are legends and deserve to be honored. Looking into the far future, I see Family Breakfeast making it in one day.



...and to make it extra special, wooters would have to have a minimum amount of woots under their belts in order to be eligible to purchase!

haxrfun


quality posts: 0 Private Messages haxrfun
regularshmo wrote:...and to make it extra special, wooters would have to have a minimum amount of woots under their belts in order to be eligible to purchase!



Hmm... I hadn't thought of that in my original idea.

rglee129


quality posts: 28 Private Messages rglee129
cmillard1 wrote:I have a hunch that if someone (possibly myself, eventually) plots up the daily sales for individual shirts, they'll find an exponential decay factor that explains long term shirt sales. Aside from the holidays, a DSR of ~30 will be around the fifth spot. Shirts that can maintain a sales rate above 30 for an extended period of time (i.e. more than two months or so) are going to be around awhile*.

While they were near each other in the rankings, Family Breakfast had a notably higher DSR for much of this time and seems to be "bottoming out" around a DSR of 30, while Run Away! Run Away! bottomed out around 20 (which is near the Reckoning threshold). For comparison, entering Reckoning 230, FB was 2nd, with a DSR greater than 60, and had been on the list for 8 weeks, while RA!RA! was 4th, with a DSR below 40 (note: includes some holiday sales), and had been around for 7 weeks. Their similar positioning in the order masked a significant sales difference.

*Another factor is whether a shirt would be anticipated to receive a boost due to pop culture/nostalgia that is long-term or fleeting (e.g. Star Wars is longer term, while Portal 2 appears to have been more fleeting).



Thanks for the data and number crunching.

So you're thinking it's around week 7 or 8 that the DSR becomes a tell-tale sign? That's interesting. I'd love to see a plot of this stuff like you suggest, especially if there's some trend that pops out.

Regarding your last comment, I think the Portal 2 trend explains the rise and fall of Bass's Portal Mouse, but it seems like Kitchen Warfare had a similar trajectory (red-hot sales then steep drop), and cooking hasn't really gone anywhere.

rglee129


quality posts: 28 Private Messages rglee129
bounty42 wrote:I'm betting you're going to see a curve for themed groups too. ie. If there are 2 cat shirts you see more per shirt sales than if there's only 1 cat shirt. But if there are 5 cat shirts, they get fewer per shirt sales than if there's just 1.

There's an old chestnut that McDonalds used to base new restuant locations on the number of curch's within a set radius, and would buy up two lots so as to sell one to the Burger King which based new resturants on "within site of that new McDonalds." Having 2 burger options in poximity increased sales beyond what 1 alone would get.



Reckoning factors abound!

rglee129


quality posts: 28 Private Messages rglee129
escapecar wrote:For the obvious pop culture designs, I think it's the size and passion of the fanbase, and if the joke is easy to see. Hit the right spots, and your shirt will live for a long, long time. (In your example, I think there are many more Star Wars fans willing to wear a funny shirt than Monty Python fans.)

I think that applies to other shirts, as well. Several artists here have fanbases that just about guarantee their shirt makes it through the first week without being reckoned. But does the design have what it takes to attract other buyers? Figure that out, and you'll be rich.

Sometimes, getting Reckoned is just bad luck. Have a bad week of sales at the wrong time, and you could be out two weeks later when the competition is stronger. That's pretty much what happened to Run Away and It Came out of Nowhere last week. 4 or 5 more sales the week ending 2/13, and they're still here while two other shirts aren't. Sometimes shirts that avoid that one critical Reckoning hang on for another couple of months. Or years.



It's those "right spots" which are so mysterious. Why wasn't Walmazan's Cookie Monster design nearly as popular as The Binge? Why is Nevermore so popular, but other Poe designs haven't come close? I mean, there are obvious differences among these designs, but there is nothing close to a unifying theory that explains why some designs have this amazing longevity...

tnode192


quality posts: 2 Private Messages tnode192

I imagine there will be a boost to the longer running shirts this week as those on the edge of a purchase who want to make sure they get an AA blank go ahead and pull the trigger before they run out and are reprinted.

I grabbed a "shhhhhh" yesterday for that reason.

rugrats2001


quality posts: 14 Private Messages rugrats2001

Wow, right now the danger zone holds THREE Ramyb's and BOTH Ochopika's. It is the apocalypse all over again!

sunaness


quality posts: 19 Private Messages sunaness

crossing my fingers for a reckoning woot off tomorrow

runnerfrog13


quality posts: 10 Private Messages runnerfrog13
bounty42 wrote:"Women's" is more appropriately titled "Juniors", as if you look at the size charts, All but 1 of them are smaller than a male SMALL, and the Youth 12 is actually larger than Women's Large in the chest. I know few "Women" who would be called "like a 12 year old boy, but taller..."


Maybe there is my whole problem - I finally switched to men's sizes because the women's were shrinking too much and feeling too constricting (length, chest, and hips), and didn't even THINK to check the K12 size to see if it would have been larger than a WL...

cmillard1


quality posts: 6 Private Messages cmillard1
rglee129 wrote:Thanks for the data and number crunching.

So you're thinking it's around week 7 or 8 that the DSR becomes a tell-tale sign? That's interesting. I'd love to see a plot of this stuff like you suggest, especially if there's some trend that pops out.

Regarding your last comment, I think the Portal 2 trend explains the rise and fall of Bass's Portal Mouse, but it seems like Kitchen Warfare had a similar trajectory (red-hot sales then steep drop), and cooking hasn't really gone anywhere.



I haven't done enough crunching to know for sure, but my hunch is that where the DSR bottoms out is really important. For example, Family Breakfast has been around 32-36 in DSR for 6 weeks or so, which is well above the danger zone. While it will continue to drop, it probably won't drop below 20-22 for awhile. Although, the 3D release could be impacting this...

I did look at the decay factor for Shhhhhh (first try at it) and I don't think there was enough data to say anything definitive (i.e. it hasn't really bottomed out yet). It seems that you'd probably need 2-4 months of data to get a strong sense of it. It also doesn't help that the first few days it was available were during a Woot-Off and it sold out to boot, which probably really bumped sales those first few days.

dfunk29


quality posts: 54 Private Messages dfunk29
sunaness wrote:crossing my fingers for a reckoning woot off tomorrow



I want a whole shirt.woot-off, but they say I'm a dreamer...blah blah

Everything's now on the Anvil blanks as of 2.21.12.


Narfcake


quality posts: 293 Private Messages Narfcake

Whoops - I thought I posted the numbers up earlier. My thoughts have been elsewhere (on less happy things) these couple days.

For those who care, today's shirt, Artistic Growth is printed on AA blanks; I will be picking one up at the regular $15.

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting. Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (1) Lucky at last - (+292) to 6296. Approx. 159.96 real time DSR; 86.63 Woot-based DSR
2 (2) Shhhhhhh - (+224) to 9228. Approx. 73.88 real time DSR; 62.39 Woot-based DSR
3 (7) Nyan's Dream - (+167) to 3088. Approx. 85.88 real time DSR; 41.88 Woot-based DSR
4 (3) Family Portrait - (+111) to 3966. Approx. 54.01 real time DSR; 39.76 Woot-based DSR
5 (4) Lifetime Achievement Award - (+96) to 3955. Approx. 38.61 real time DSR; 32.61 Woot-based DSR
6 (5) Family Breakfast - (+92) to 13194. Approx. 32.69 real time DSR; 27.61 Woot-based DSR
7 (8) Hey! Listen! - (+74) to 3038. Approx. 43.53 real time DSR; 27.04 Woot-based DSR
8 (25) The Artist - (+104) to 2135. Approx. 65.5 real time DSR; 27.47 Woot-based DSR
9 (6) Playing Koi - (+38) to 3605. Approx. 29.3 real time DSR; 23.87 Woot-based DSR
10 (11) Blending In - (+67) to 1939. Approx. 31.74 real time DSR; 22.21 Woot-based DSR
11 (9) The Binge - (+98) to 55939. Approx. 25.59 real time DSR; 21.61 Woot-based DSR
12 (10) Elements of Life - (+47) to 2327. Approx. 24.86 real time DSR; 20.04 Woot-based DSR
13 (20) Nevermore - (+102) to 46493. Approx. 23.13 real time DSR; 19.54 Woot-based DSR
14 (15) We’re more than famous! - (+66) to 4602. Approx. 22.67 real time DSR; 19.14 Woot-based DSR
15 (12) Code of Arms - (+46) to 4851. Approx. 22.5 real time DSR; 19 Woot-based DSR
16 (14) Motivation - (+55) to 5932. Approx. 22.46 real time DSR; 18.96 Woot-based DSR
17 (24) The Pen and The Sword - (+60) to 2104. Approx. 29.34 real time DSR; 19.12 Woot-based DSR
18 (13) Hold Still Guys! - (+42) to 3308. Approx. 22.29 real time DSR; 18.82 Woot-based DSR
19 (18) Schrödinger’s Equation - (+68) to 7742. Approx. 22.29 real time DSR; 18.82 Woot-based DSR
20 (21) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - (+90) to 5687. Approx. 22.29 real time DSR; 18.82 Woot-based DSR
21 (16) Acquired Taste - (+62) to 21694. Approx. 22.2 real time DSR; 18.75 Woot-based DSR
22 (19) They See Me Rollin' - (+66) to 4293. Approx. 22.08 real time DSR; 18.64 Woot-based DSR
23 (17) Makin’ Bread - (+55) to 8448. Approx. 21.95 real time DSR; 18.54 Woot-based DSR
24 (23) Going to a Cheesier Place - (+53) to 1993. Approx. 24.49 real time DSR; 17.61 Woot-based DSR
25 (22) Blossom - (+42) to 2072. Approx. 21.76 real time DSR; 17.35 Woot-based DSR
26 (26) Force Equation - (+65) to 2141. Approx. 28.48 real time DSR; 16.67 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) Best Friends Forever - (+27) to 1561. Approx. 13.23 real time DSR; 8.96 Woot-based DSR
91 (91) A Superbotanical Study - (+63) to 1307. Approx. 29.37 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
92 (92) A Lot Of This Going Around - (+96) to 2461. Approx. 83.83 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
93 (93) Too Many Cooks - 1302.

Everything from 14-26 is still game right now; this coming Monday might just be the most insane reckoning ever.

grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote

Bought BreadCat for a third time, but don't know if it'll do any good. I would think that more people would knead this shirt, wouldn't you

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote
escapecar wrote:
Sometimes, getting Reckoned is just bad luck. Have a bad week of sales at the wrong time, and you could be out two weeks later when the competition is stronger. That's pretty much what happened to Run Away and It Came out of Nowhere last week. 4 or 5 more sales the week ending 2/13, and they're still here while two other shirts aren't. Sometimes shirts that avoid that one critical Reckoning hang on for another couple of months. Or years.



Indeed. I think Kitchen Warfare could also be included in the "bad luck" category, as it had a week or two of slow sales at a very inopportune time (the holidays). Luck can also work in favor of a shirt, as you noted. Nevermore was within a shirt or two (and mere seconds) of the axe two weeks ago, and now look at it. It's one of the best sellers this week.

From looking at the past few days worth of data, right now Hold Still, Guys, and Code of Arms are falling behind the pack. CoA is in better shape as it had some strong sales recently, but HSG needs to step up its game. Of course, given the current volatility of the Reckoning, a handful of sales will likely shoot either of them back into competition.

caramelarrow


quality posts: 14 Private Messages caramelarrow

Well, I can only speak for myself here, but I bought Nevermore this week so I can have it on an AA shirt. I had been holding off because I wanted to buy it on its 4 year anniversary, but I figure it will be on Anvil before then.

07/11/14

adorabrooke


quality posts: 1 Private Messages adorabrooke
grahamcrackercoyote wrote: I would think that more people would knead this shirt, wouldn't you



KNEAD! I get it...=o)

starksre


quality posts: 3 Private Messages starksre

man you go without internet for 30 hours and you miss alot... curse you reckoning i dont want my turtles roll away!

specsmachine


quality posts: 31 Private Messages specsmachine
citizencoyote wrote:Indeed. I think Kitchen Warfare could also be included in the "bad luck" category, as it had a week or two of slow sales at a very inopportune time (the holidays).



I think the apron took a pretty good chunk out of shirt sales as well.

gement


quality posts: 7 Private Messages gement

It is in no way significant, but the 5 non-Skippy Squirrel shirts currently in danger have been on the charts for 2, 3, 5, 7, and 11 weeks.

I like prime numbers.

ochopika


quality posts: 28 Private Messages ochopika

Staff

starksre wrote:man you go without internet for 30 hours and you miss alot... curse you reckoning i dont want my turtles roll away!



lol I guess that's how they roll... or not if someone saves them. *looks around sheepishly*

vaprrenon


quality posts: 0 Private Messages vaprrenon

ARG!
I can't log in and buy a shirt for a few days and It Came Outta Nowhere disappears completely? -_- Now I am eternally sad.

Carolyn Severs

cmillard1


quality posts: 6 Private Messages cmillard1
citizencoyote wrote:Indeed. I think Kitchen Warfare could also be included in the "bad luck" category, as it had a week or two of slow sales at a very inopportune time (the holidays). Luck can also work in favor of a shirt, as you noted. Nevermore was within a shirt or two (and mere seconds) of the axe two weeks ago, and now look at it. It's one of the best sellers this week.



Yes, the daily sales numbers(as in, how many shirts were sold on specific days) are really random/noisy. Within the past week Shhhhhh had a day where it sold 35 shirts and another day of 100+ sales, for example. More or less, two or three really strong/weak days (with none of the counterpart) will propel/kill a shirt for that week. Have two bad weeks in a four week period and that shirt might drop 3-4 DSR points below what is expected. For a shirt with an expected DSR of 24 (almost always safe, unless during the holidays), this could lead to its Reckoning.

caramelarrow


quality posts: 14 Private Messages caramelarrow
citizencoyote wrote:Indeed. I think Kitchen Warfare could also be included in the "bad luck" category, as it had a week or two of slow sales at a very inopportune time (the holidays).



specsmachine wrote:I think the apron took a pretty good chunk out of shirt sales as well.



Agreed. I think if Woot is going to offer "special" items for sale with designs that are in the Reckoning, then all sales of that design should count toward the standings. After all, people aren't buying a blank apron (or long sleeve or whatever), they're buying it for the design. Kitchen Warfare it the coolest apron EVER! I'm sorry if by purchasing it as an apron I killed it as a shirt. :-(

07/11/14

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote
caramelarrow wrote:Agreed. I think if Woot is going to offer "special" items for sale with designs that are in the Reckoning, then all sales of that design should count toward the standings. After all, people aren't buying a blank apron (or long sleeve or whatever), they're buying it for the design. Kitchen Warfare it the coolest apron EVER! I'm sorry if by purchasing it as an apron I killed it as a shirt. :-(



I would fully support this, but it would make the number crunchers' lives more difficult. Another approach would be to not include designs in the Reckoning on special items. That way, the artists could get a little bit more money after their shirt disappeared.

bluejester


quality posts: 569 Private Messages bluejester

Something seemed wrong, so I refreshed the reckoning page at least two three seperate times before I figured out what was going on.

I keep wanting "It Came Out of Nowhere" to be there. But it's not there. It's not ever going to be there. And it's not coming back.

=(

aramis525


quality posts: 8 Private Messages aramis525
bluejester wrote:Something seemed wrong, so I refreshed the reckoning page at least two three seperate times before I figured out what was going on.

I keep wanting "It Came Out of Nowhere" to be there. But it's not there. It's not ever going to be there. And it's not coming back.

=(



You never know, it could come out of nowhere. Sorry, couldn't resists.

pureval


quality posts: 6 Private Messages pureval

I am wondering if Nevermore's increased sales could be related to ICOON's untimely demise. Might have made some people realize that no shirt is safe and to grab the ones you love when you can.

It puts the crap inside the bag or it gets the hose again.

escapecar


quality posts: 16 Private Messages escapecar
pureval wrote:I am wondering if Nevermore's increased sales could be related to ICOON's untimely demise. Might have made some people realize that no shirt is safe and to grab the ones you love when you can.



Reading the comment thread for that shirt, there are people out there who are very nostalgic for The Bird. And I'm sure there are many people grabbing it while they can still get it on the old shirt blanks. It certainly is selling well so far this week.

However, burning through all that pent-up demand in a few days might put it in a bad spot in another month. You just never know.

Narfcake


quality posts: 293 Private Messages Narfcake
pureval wrote:I am wondering if Nevermore's increased sales could be related to ICOON's untimely demise. ...


For some apparent reason, the bird tends to sell well every woot-off.

pureval


quality posts: 6 Private Messages pureval
Narfcake wrote:For some apparent reason, the bird tends to sell well every woot-off.



Come to think of it, I believe it was a woot-off when I purchased mine. It was my first purchase here. Of many. Too many according to my wife.

It puts the crap inside the bag or it gets the hose again.

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote

We didn't have the normal shirt woot-off though, did we?

Narfcake


quality posts: 293 Private Messages Narfcake
citizencoyote wrote:We didn't have the normal shirt woot-off though, did we?


No we didn't, but sales are still much higher than on a "normal" weekday.

vkinman


quality posts: 1 Private Messages vkinman

Come on bread-cat, don't die! Climb on out of the danger zone, there!

j5


quality posts: 63 Private Messages j5
runnerfrog13 wrote:Maybe there is my whole problem - I finally switched to men's sizes because the women's were shrinking too much and feeling too constricting (length, chest, and hips), and didn't even THINK to check the K12 size to see if it would have been larger than a WL...

WL (in AA) is slightly bigger than K12.
I see it like this: K12 - WL - MS - WXL.

I have a shirt catalog, y'all!

nycbrent


quality posts: 1 Private Messages nycbrent

Wah! No numbers "fix" from Narfcake this morning!

He's spoiled us...

escapecar


quality posts: 16 Private Messages escapecar

My spreadsheet does not translate to easy message-board posting, and I don't do this quite like Narfcake does. But as of 9am this morning, I've got this:

Rank/Shirt name/Sales since Noon Monday/Total Sales/Woot-style DSR:

1 Lucky at Last 494 6422 99.89
2 Shhhhhhh 341 9309 65.29
3 Nyan's Dream 269 3149 49.06
4 Family Portrait 179 4018 42.91
5 The Artist 214 2194 35.33
6 Lifetime Achievement Award 157 3999 34.14
7 Hey! Listen! 128 3079 30.61
8 Family Breakfast 152 13243 29.36
9 Blending In 117 1981 25.10
10 Playing Koi 69 3626 24.89
11 The Binge 163 55992 23.50
12 The Pen and the Sword 93 2130 21.20
13 Elements of Life 75 2347 20.93
14 Nevermore 167 46531 20.89
15 We’re more than famous! 112 4641 20.54
16 Makin’ Bread 111 8490 20.04
17 Motivation 91 5960 19.96
18 Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening 134 5719 19.96
19 Schrödinger’s Equation 115 7774 19.96
20 Hold Still Guys! 83 3339 19.93
21 Acquired Taste 105 21727 19.93
22 Code of Arms 80 4877 19.93
23 They See Me Rollin' 106 4322 19.68
24 Going To a Cheesier Place 97 2022 19.48
25 Force Equation 105 2165 18.95
26 Blossom 71 2097 18.56
27 Best Friends Forever 45 1579 10.30

(I don't pay much attention to the bystanders until Sunday, sorry)

What does this mean?

1. Shirts 1-15 appear to be in good shape. The half-point gap in DSR between 15 and 16 is hard for a veteran shirt to make up.

2. The rolling average currently shows a 3-shirt gap between 16 and 22, and 23 is not that far behind.

3. Cheesier Place and Force Equation are still very much alive. As newer shirts, they don't need as many sales to move their DSRs.

4. Blossom has fallen off the pace, leaving spots 16-25 in play.

It may take a DSR of over 22 to survive this week, that's 1.5 points higher than last week. The Woot-Off and looming supplier change have dramatically impacted sales.

WootBot


quality posts: 15 Private Messages WootBot

Staff

Friday's here, so everyone gather 'round! It's time again to check out the Reckoning and see who's going to last through the weekend and who's going to be leaving us Monday when the votes are tallied. We've got five noobs in the Top 20 at the moment; will they stick around? Will they drop to the Danger Zone? Only your purchasing will decide!

 

waveformblue


quality posts: 1 Private Messages waveformblue
vkinman wrote:Come on bread-cat, don't die! Climb on out of the danger zone, there!



Die kitty DIE...and take formula cat with you.

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote
waveformblue wrote:Die kitty DIE...and take formula cat with you.



One person's trash is another one's treasure.