WootBot


quality posts: 14 Private Messages WootBot

Staff

Time again for another march toward t-shirt doom! Discuss this week's life-or-death struggle for sales supremacy as chronicled on the Reckoning page all week long.

Here's how the Reckoning week runs now: every Tuesday at midnight, we retire the previous week's lowest-selling shirts and launch this here discussion thread. Tuesday around noon we'll post the all-new, all-early Reckoning Recon. On Friday, we'll juice demand and prime the pump with a little weekend reminder post. Finally, on the following Monday, the Day of Reckoning post sounds the last call for the Reckoned shirts. All of those posts will be linked below. Monday night (or Tuesday morning), it starts all over again. The Reckoning, she is a hungry beast...




WootBot


quality posts: 14 Private Messages WootBot

Staff

Tuesdays are for taking a breath and taking it all in. The Reckoning happened yesterday; seven shirts were cast off forever and now we're left to pick through the pieces and figure out where the next seven will fit. Here are your Reckoning standings as of when I copied and pasted this:

 

  1. Shhhhhhh 
  2. Lifetime Achievement Award
  3. Family Breakfast
  4. Hold Still Guys!
  5. Motivation
  6. We're more than famous!
  7. Playing Koi (noob)
  8. The Binge
  9. Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening
  10. It Came Out Of Nowhere
  11. They See Me Rollin'
  12. Unstealthiest Ninja
  13. The Birthplace of Inspiration
  14. Nevermore
  15. Run Away! Run Away!
  16. Makin' Bread
  17. Code of Arms
  18. Schrödinger’s Equation
  19. Acquired Taste
  20. Vampires!

    The Danger Zone

 

 

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake

Another Monday night, another start of the new reckoning ...

Legend: (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - baseline sales numbers.
(1) Shhhhhhh - 8069
(2) Lifetime Achievement Award - 3386
(3) Family Breakfast - 12637
(4) Hold Still Guys! - 3011
(5) Motivation - 5596
(6) We’re more than famous! - 4284
(7) Playing Koi - 3286
(8) The Binge - 55515
(9) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - 5308
(10) It Came Out Of Nowhere - 37048
(11) They See Me Rollin' - 3917
(12) Unstealthiest Ninja - 14235
(13) The Birthplace of Inspiration - 4410
(14) Run Away! Run Away! - 10715
(15) Nevermore - 46080
(16) Makin’ Bread - 8064
(17) Code of Arms - 4507
(18) Schrödinger’s Equation - 7333
(19) Acquired Taste - 21301
(20) Vampires! - 4011
(21) Winners at Life - 1624
(22) Elements of Life - 1979
(23) District 14 - 1478
(24) Blossom - 1757
(25) Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing - 582
(26) Love Conquers All - 887
(27) Keep It Real - 676

Daily Sales Rates are for informational purposes only and are not 100% accurate.
1. Shhhhhhh - Approx. 102 real time DSR; 76.94 Woot-based DSR
2. Lifetime Achievement Award - Approx. 47.8 real time DSR; 26.34 Woot-based DSR
3. Family Breakfast - Approx. 35.13 real time DSR; 26.96 Woot-based DSR
4. Hold Still Guys! - Approx. 35.02 real time DSR; 25.32 Woot-based DSR
5. Motivation - Approx. 33.87 real time DSR; 26 Woot-based DSR
6. We’re more than famous! - Approx. 36.49 real time DSR; 24.31 Woot-based DSR
7. Playing Koi - Approx. 75.56 real time DSR; 23.79 Woot-based DSR
8. The Binge - Approx. 24.85 real time DSR; 19.07 Woot-based DSR
9. Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - Approx. 23.27 real time DSR; 17.86 Woot-based DSR
10. It Came Out Of Nowhere - Approx. 22.43 real time DSR; 17.21 Woot-based DSR
11. They See Me Rollin' - Approx. 22.57 real time DSR; 17.32 Woot-based DSR
12. Unstealthiest Ninja - Approx. 22.29 real time DSR; 17.11 Woot-based DSR
13. The Birthplace of Inspiration - Approx. 21.26 real time DSR; 16.32 Woot-based DSR
14. Run Away! Run Away! - Approx. 20.94 real time DSR; 16.07 Woot-based DSR
15. Nevermore - Approx. 20.75 real time DSR; 15.93 Woot-based DSR
16. Makin’ Bread - Approx. 20.43 real time DSR; 15.68 Woot-based DSR
17. Code of Arms - Approx. 19.96 real time DSR; 15.32 Woot-based DSR
18. Schrödinger’s Equation - Approx. 19.22 real time DSR; 14.75 Woot-based DSR
19. Acquired Taste - Approx. 18.61 real time DSR; 14.29 Woot-based DSR
20. Vampires! - Approx. 16.94 real time DSR; 13 Woot-based DSR
21. Winners at Life - Approx. 19.22 real time DSR; 11.64 Woot-based DSR
22. Elements of Life - Approx. 43.19 real time DSR; 10.12 Woot-based DSR
23. District 14 - Approx. 24.81 real time DSR; 9.43 Woot-based DSR
24. Blossom - Approx. 30.27 real time DSR; 4 Woot-based DSR
25. Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing - Approx. 10.62 real time DSR; 4.61 Woot-based DSR
26. Love Conquers All - Approx. 8.3 real time DSR; 4.3 Woot-based DSR
27. Keep It Real - Approx. 9.35 real time DSR; 4.48 Woot-based DSR

cmillard1


quality posts: 6 Private Messages cmillard1

Looking at those numbers, I sense a crazy Reckoning come midday Monday. Everything below 9th (!!!) might be in play...

vkinman


quality posts: 1 Private Messages vkinman

Not looking good for the noobs again, but then again the night is young, so to speak.

Congrats to the Koi for starting out so high, though. :-)

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake
cmillard1 wrote:Looking at those numbers, I sense a crazy Reckoning come midday Monday. Everything below 9th (!!!) might be in play...


I don't anticipate one this week. There's a pretty good spread, so I don't see some 9-way going on like a couple reckonings ago.

vkinman wrote:Not looking good for the noobs again, but then again the night is young, so to speak.

Congrats to the Koi for starting out so high, though. :-)


Woot's future-based accounting always has noobs ranked lower at the beginning of the week, hence why I include the "real time" DSR numbers too.

Elements of Life will escape, and Blossom may be sufficiently high enough to do so, though if it does, then it's Schrodinger's Equation that is in line for the chopping block. I anticipate that Acquired Taste will get a good run of sales so it can live on for one more week, aka the one year mark.

missmelis


quality posts: 20 Private Messages missmelis

Wow, Koi really jumped right out of the pond there! I have to say, I'm a bit surprised to see it and the other designs from last week's derby doing so well... they're all lovely and artistic, but one must admit that watercolor-themed designs aren't the kind of thing that typically have much staying power here. If I were a gambling and/or predicting type, I would have guessed that Koi would have been somewhere in the #10-20 range by next Monday, and the other two wouldn't have made it out of the danger zone.

And now you see why I'm not a gambling or predicting type... it's not a good way to be if you're wrong as often as I am!

The goodness of the true pun is in the direct ratio of its intolerability. - Edgar Allan Poe

starksre


quality posts: 3 Private Messages starksre

i thought district 14 would at least start out of the reckoning... no wonder the capital destroyed it

omarfeliciano


quality posts: 34 Private Messages omarfeliciano

Hey guy, I am new to this whole Reckoning thing and I am trying to understand it a little bit. I am trying to figure out how positions are assigned. I am looking at the Baseline and compare that to the current sales, but when I look at the ranking for each shirt it doesn't match. For example, judging by the numbers I see, "Acquired Taste" doesn't have any sales since the Baseline numbers and it's on position #19, but "Winners at Life" has sold 6 shirts and it's currently #21.

Please help a fellow artist understand the Reckoning! I'll really appreciate it! Thanks.

grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote
vkinman wrote:Not looking good for the noobs again, but then again the night is young, so to speak.

Congrats to the Koi for starting out so high, though. :-)



I'll second that - as a wrecker of light colored tees, it's nice to see that there are folks out there that can actually wear one without having a food misshap

grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote
starksre wrote:i thought district 14 would at least start out of the reckoning... no wonder the capital destroyed it



It might survive - everybody loves some tacos [Although, not while wearing one of last weeks watercolor tees!]

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake
omarfeliciano wrote:Hey guy, I am new to this whole Reckoning thing and I am trying to understand it a little bit. I am trying to figure out how positions are assigned. ...



Per the FAQ, it's measured by post-launch sales per day over the last four weeks.

On my weeknight postings, I include the "real-time" Daily Sales Rate, which only includes the days that have elapsed. Woot bases their numbers/ranking on the total number of days the shirt will have come Monday (future-based accounting), hence why there's the Woot-based DSR too.

On my calculations, the real-time is a better indicator of how a shirt is doing while the Woot-based corresponds to the rank. Come Monday when the week closes, the two will be the same.

If you want a more simplified answer, Darquis posted it a while back.

escapecar


quality posts: 16 Private Messages escapecar
vkinman wrote:Not looking good for the noobs again, but then again the night is young, so to speak.

Congrats to the Koi for starting out so high, though. :-)



I think there's a decent chance that four noobs make it out this week. 2-3 more days of sales data will tell the tale.

And that really would liven up our Monday morning....if you can use that term when commenting on shirts that feature the undead.

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
Narfcake wrote: Woot bases their numbers/ranking on the total number of days the shirt will have come Monday (future-based accounting), hence why there's the Woot-based DSR too.



So this one's bugging me today. Does this mean "If this is all he sells by Monday" or "if he keeps selling the average daily rate every day until Monday?"



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake
bounty42 wrote:... "If this is all he sells by Monday" ...



This.

The denominator (days) is fixed, but with every sale, the numerator rises, hence the woot-based DSR that increases as Monday approaches.

Rhonwyn22


quality posts: 4 Private Messages Rhonwyn22

I like Blossom as a picture but as a woman, there would be a branch over each boob making the shirt look 3 dimensional but a little weird to wear.

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote

Gah! Argh! Yesterday afternoon and eve totally ran away from me, so I missed not only random shirt day but also Meatatarian. Sigh. You'd think I'd know by now how the Reckoning can change at the last minute, even if it's been fairly static all week.

pureval


quality posts: 5 Private Messages pureval

Quote the raven... Forevermore!

It puts the crap inside the bag or it gets the hose again.

emberdione


quality posts: 3 Private Messages emberdione

Grats to Nevermore for making it to 200 weeks.

/salutes to poetical bird

polluxoil


quality posts: 33 Private Messages polluxoil

I think those that wished for Nevermore to fall out of the reckoning missed their opportunity when they chose to keep it for it's 200th week anniversary instead. I have a feeling it'll be a looooooong time before it dips back into range of extinction.

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake
polluxoil wrote:I think those that wished for Nevermore to fall out of the reckoning missed their opportunity when they chose to keep it for it's 200th week anniversary instead. I have a feeling it'll be a looooooong time before it dips back into range of extinction.


Sorry. It was probably my fault for bad mouthing it week when I said that an old Ramy shirt was worth 298 times that of a used Nevermore shirt - because I really was serious about that.

elankat


quality posts: 7 Private Messages elankat

I wonder if Acquired Taste will survive the week and make it to the one year mark. I hope so.

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake

Another review regarding reckoning rankings:

If you're wondering why the zombies fell down that much and the ninjas rose in ranks compared to last week, we have to go back three weeks ...

#234
#233
#232

... and then go back the 4th week to see what was lost.
#231

Acquired Taste had a (+108), (+98), and (+163). It gave up a very strong (+166).
Unstealthiest Ninja had a (+91), (+149), and (+199). It gave up a weak (+70).

That's why the two are in the positions they are currently in.

Next week, the (+163) and (+199) will not count anymore, and whatever it sells this week would count instead.

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake

Almost one night, and SILLY ZOMBIES! - you're not going to see week #52 with a measly (+15).

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting. Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (1) Shhhhhhh - (+75) to 8144. Approx. 102.14 real time DSR; 80.91 Woot-based DSR
2 (2) Lifetime Achievement Award - (+46) to 3432. Approx. 50.83 real time DSR; 31.52 Woot-based DSR
3 (3) Family Breakfast - (+44) to 12681. Approx. 36.28 real time DSR; 29.14 Woot-based DSR
4 (4) Hold Still Guys! - (+35) to 3046. Approx. 35.68 real time DSR; 27.32 Woot-based DSR
5 (7) Playing Koi - (+23) to 3309. Approx. 66.4 real time DSR; 27.89 Woot-based DSR
6 (5) Motivation - (+18) to 5614. Approx. 33.97 real time DSR; 27.29 Woot-based DSR
7 (6) We’re more than famous! - (+23) to 4307. Approx. 36.45 real time DSR; 26.15 Woot-based DSR
8 (8) The Binge - (+23) to 55538. Approx. 25.34 real time DSR; 20.36 Woot-based DSR
9 (9) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - (+21) to 5329. Approx. 23.61 real time DSR; 18.96 Woot-based DSR
10 (10) It Came Out Of Nowhere - (+22) to 37070. Approx. 23.03 real time DSR; 18.5 Woot-based DSR
11 (11) They See Me Rollin' - (+24) to 3941. Approx. 23.25 real time DSR; 18.68 Woot-based DSR
12 (12) Unstealthiest Ninja - (+11) to 14246. Approx. 22.45 real time DSR; 18.04 Woot-based DSR
13 (13) The Birthplace of Inspiration - (+10) to 4420. Approx. 21.21 real time DSR; 17.04 Woot-based DSR
14 (16) Makin’ Bread - (+19) to 8083. Approx. 21.16 real time DSR; 17 Woot-based DSR
15 (15) Nevermore - (+16) to 46096. Approx. 21.21 real time DSR; 17.04 Woot-based DSR
16 (14) Run Away! Run Away! - (+9) to 10724. Approx. 20.94 real time DSR; 16.82 Woot-based DSR
17 (17) Code of Arms - (+26) to 4533. Approx. 20.45 real time DSR; 16.43 Woot-based DSR
18 (18) Schrödinger’s Equation - (+17) to 7350. Approx. 19.52 real time DSR; 15.68 Woot-based DSR
19 (22) Elements of Life - (+34) to 2013. Approx. 45.8 real time DSR; 16.12 Woot-based DSR
20 (19) Acquired Taste - (+15) to 21316. Approx. 19.12 real time DSR; 15.36 Woot-based DSR
21 (20) Vampires! - (+20) to 4031. Approx. 17.34 real time DSR; 13.93 Woot-based DSR
22 (21) Winners at Life - (+14) to 1638. Approx. 19.38 real time DSR; 12.91 Woot-based DSR
23 (24) Blossom - (+41) to 1798. Approx. 49.72 real time DSR; 13.2 Woot-based DSR
24 (23) District 14 - (+22) to 1500. Approx. 25.85 real time DSR; 12.29 Woot-based DSR
25 (26) Love Conquers All - (+15) to 902. Approx. 9.64 real time DSR; 5.7 Woot-based DSR
26 (25) Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing - (+9) to 591. Approx. 10.85 real time DSR; 5.65 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) Keep It Real - (+3) to 679. Approx. 8.58 real time DSR; 4.8 Woot-based DSR

grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote

I've finally figured out Nevermore - the same half a dozen folks are buying the tee shirts, washing them once, and then buying new ones because the old one faded away. The printing on Nevermore becomes nevermore upon washing. It's either that or they're looking for the missing pieces of text and they're gonna keep buying one until all of Poe's words appear.

dcroe05


quality posts: 12 Private Messages dcroe05
Narfcake wrote:Next week, the (+163) and (+199) will not count anymore, and whatever it sells this week would count instead.



Also, next week, the Woot-Off numbers fall out of consideration, so tracking gets a little easier.

escapecar


quality posts: 16 Private Messages escapecar
dcroe05 wrote:Also, next week, the Woot-Off numbers fall out of consideration, so tracking gets a little easier.



Which probably means it will be time for another Woot-Off.

tnode192


quality posts: 2 Private Messages tnode192

Hmmm.. beginning to look like I am going to have to decide this week if Schrödinger’s is going to get my money or not.

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake
tnode192 wrote:Hmmm.. beginning to look like I am going to have to decide this week if Schrödinger’s is going to get my money or not.


Well you do want to open the box to find that the cat is still alive, right?

dcroe05


quality posts: 12 Private Messages dcroe05
Narfcake wrote:Well you do want to open the box to find that the cat is still alive, right?



A legitimate source of speculation. When I received my original copy the cat was most assuredly dead. But with my replacement copy he looked to be in much better shape.



-----------------------------------

For the Number Nerds out there:

Narfcake numbers are great. But for fun (please, no jokes) I've been trying to look at the numbers a different way...trying to come up with a model that is less observatory and more predictive. I'm not sure I'm there yet, but here are the results of 3 different ways of predicting what 19-27 will look like on Monday.

Ranked by Weighted Sales (raw sales scaled to a 28 day timeframe)
19 Schrödinger’s Equation
20 Acquired Taste
21 Blossom
22 Vampires!
23 Winners at Life
24 District 14
25 Sheep In Wolf's Clothing
26 Keep It Real
27 Love Conquers All

Ranked by RT DSR (as made famous by NarfCake)
19 Run Away! Run Away!
20 Code of Arms
21 Schrödinger’s Equation
22 Winners at Life
23 Acquired Taste
24 Vampires!
25 Sheep In Wolf's Clothing
26 Keep It Real
27 Love Conquers All

Ranked by Projected Sales (current weekly sales rate extrapolated, added to previous weeks', and adjusted to 28 day timeframe)
19 Schrödinger’s Equation
20 Acquired Taste
21 The Birthplace of Inspiration
22 District 14
23 Vampires!
24 Winners at Life
25 Sheep In Wolf's Clothing
26 Love Conquers All
27 Keep It Real

I realize that no method can be completely predictive, as people will rally to save shirts. But I've been keeping these numbers since, roughly, the last woot-off, and so far aside from last minute rallies, the Projected Sales numbers have been pretty good.

j5


quality posts: 63 Private Messages j5

I sometimes wonder if the accountants at shirt.woot sit back and laugh at our feeble attempts at sales analysis while they enjoy their high powered business analytics sales stats.

move along

tnode192


quality posts: 2 Private Messages tnode192
dcroe05 wrote:Also, next week, the Woot-Off numbers fall out of consideration, so tracking gets a little easier.



I thought I read on here somewhere that the reduced price woot-off sales didn't count towards the reckoning position. Do they count?

dcroe05


quality posts: 12 Private Messages dcroe05
tnode192 wrote:I thought I read on here somewhere that the reduced price woot-off sales didn't count towards the reckoning position. Do they count?



They do not. So we have to exclude them. But it's hard to know exactly how many to exclude.

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake
j5 wrote:I sometimes wonder if the accountants at shirt.woot sit back and laugh at our feeble attempts at sales analysis while they enjoy their high powered business analytics sales stats.



They probably do. There's four of us tracking debut day sales, two doing analysis on a regular basis, several who help out during the woot-off hour, and one who does the same thing every night.

Plus those we're unaware of who do it on their own too.

All the while, their computer does all the work and spits out the results already in the form of the ranking.

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
j5 wrote:I sometimes wonder if the accountants at shirt.woot sit back and laugh at our feeble attempts at sales analysis while they enjoy their high powered business analytics sales stats.



I suspect there is at least one who keeps copying our work, and submitting it his boss as his own. ;)



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
dcroe05 wrote:-----------------------------------

For the Number Nerds out there:

-- SNIP --

I realize that no method can be completely predictive, as people will rally to save shirts. But I've been keeping these numbers since, roughly, the last woot-off, and so far aside from last minute rallies, the Projected Sales numbers have been pretty good.



We can compile a shift variable though if we grab Narf's numbers from days when any given shirt was ranked 18-22, as a daily boost variable, then apply that number to a shirt when it drops below 19...



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

dcroe05


quality posts: 12 Private Messages dcroe05
bounty42 wrote:I suspect there is at least one who keeps copying our work, and submitting it his boss as his own. ;)



It's certainly not WootBot. Anyone notice that his fist post on this thread assumes that "Keep It Real" isn't worth mentioning?

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake
bounty42 wrote:We can compile a shift variable though if we grab Narf's numbers from days when any given shirt was ranked 18-22, as a daily boost variable, then apply that number to a shirt when it drops below 19...



Congratulations! - you just nominated yourself for a new job!

Different designs are going to garner difference audiences, and not every artist/shirt has a sizable following that would or could save them, so I can't see any poit in trying to figure this out. Acquired Taste, Schrodinger's Equation, and Unstealthiest Ninja all had rallies (and Nevermore, its share of rants) in recent weeks, yielding varying results. And then there's always the strange, like how last month, Jump For It got a serious jump in sales early Monday morning in its first week. Aspects like this, I just can't see any way to apply a correlation factor to.

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
Narfcake wrote:Congratulations! - you just nominated yourself for a new job!

Different designs are going to garner difference audiences, and not every artist/shirt has a sizable following that would or could save them, so I can't see any poit in trying to figure this out. Acquired Taste, Schrodinger's Equation, and Unstealthiest Ninja all had rallies (and Nevermore, its share of rants) in recent weeks, yielding varying results. And then there's always the strange, like how last month, Jump For It got a serious jump in sales early Monday morning in its first week. Aspects like this, I just can't see any way to apply a correlation factor to.



I may do it, but not tonight. and yes, each number would be unique to the shirt. So when Aquired taste drops one place tomorrow, it will rally and I'm willing to wager that the rally is the same % of this week's sales that are part of that rally will be teh same as it was the last time Aquired Taste rallied.

This is LOTS of extra calculation, but we're trying to predict the future here, it shouldn't be SIMPLE otherwise we'd have done it already.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

Narfcake


quality posts: 284 Private Messages Narfcake
dcroe05 wrote:It's certainly not WootBot. Anyone notice that his fist post on this thread assumes that "Keep It Real" isn't worth mentioning?


To WootBot's credit, at least the year is correct.

bounty42 wrote:... This is LOTS of extra calculation, but we're trying to predict the future here, it shouldn't be SIMPLE otherwise we'd have done it already.


Well, all I'll say is good luck. Trends won't predict the crazy things that happen from time to time here, like artists buying up a half-dozen of their own shirts that absolutely was destined to be chopped anyways because it was selling so slowly; I'm not sure if they even recouped that $90 back! (This was a while back, so I don't have numbers, nor will I say which shirt it was because that's the past already and I'm sure the artist learned a direct economics lesson from that.)