Shirt.Woot

Before the numbers come up, I'm going to take a shot in the dark with a prediction and say that Cheesier Place and Blending In will make it out of the danger zone, and every shirt from Nevermore to Birthplace of Inspiration will be in danger of being reckoned come next Monday.

Baseline numbers as of 5 minutes ago.

Legend: (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - baseline sales numbers.
(1) Shhhhhhh - 8596
(2) Lifetime Achievement Award - 3642
(3) Playing Koi - 3471
(4) Family Breakfast - 12897
(5) Family Portrait - 3549
(6) We’re more than famous! - 4422
(7) Hold Still Guys! - 3163
(8) Motivation - 5762
(9) The Binge - 55671
(10) Elements of Life - 2155
(11) They See Me Rollin' - 4078
(12) Blossom - 1936
(13) It Came Out Of Nowhere - 37175
(14) Code of Arms - 4664
(15) Run Away! Run Away! - 10836
(16) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - 5446
(17) Nevermore - 46220
(18) Acquired Taste - 21470
(19) Schrödinger’s Equation - 7486
(20) Makin’ Bread - 8202
(21) The Birthplace of Inspiration - 4523
(22) Going to a Cheesier Place - 1816
(23) Blending In - 1697
(24) I like you, but… - 1572
(25) Robo Hobo - 848
(26) Sissy Sea Fight - 536
(91) Best Friends Forever - 1440

Daily Sales Rates are for informational purposes only and are not 100% accurate.
1. Shhhhhhh - Approx. 81.69 real time DSR; 62.71 Woot-based DSR
2. Lifetime Achievement Award - Approx. 44.48 real time DSR; 31.02 Woot-based DSR
3. Playing Koi - Approx. 42.72 real time DSR; 25.88 Woot-based DSR
4. Family Breakfast - Approx. 33.87 real time DSR; 26 Woot-based DSR
5. Family Portrait - Approx. 79.78 real time DSR; 25.16 Woot-based DSR
6. We’re more than famous! - Approx. 31.26 real time DSR; 23.58 Woot-based DSR
7. Hold Still Guys! - Approx. 29.63 real time DSR; 22.75 Woot-based DSR
8. Motivation - Approx. 27.49 real time DSR; 21.11 Woot-based DSR
9. The Binge - Approx. 23.68 real time DSR; 18.18 Woot-based DSR
10. Elements of Life - Approx. 31.01 real time DSR; 18 Woot-based DSR
11. They See Me Rollin' - Approx. 21.86 real time DSR; 16.79 Woot-based DSR
12. Blossom - Approx. 29.64 real time DSR; 16.34 Woot-based DSR
13. It Came Out Of Nowhere - Approx. 20.98 real time DSR; 16.11 Woot-based DSR
14. Code of Arms - Approx. 20.47 real time DSR; 15.71 Woot-based DSR
15. Run Away! Run Away! - Approx. 20.33 real time DSR; 15.61 Woot-based DSR
16. Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - Approx. 20.14 real time DSR; 15.46 Woot-based DSR
17. Nevermore - Approx. 19.96 real time DSR; 15.32 Woot-based DSR
18. Acquired Taste - Approx. 19.45 real time DSR; 14.93 Woot-based DSR
19. Schrödinger’s Equation - Approx. 18.52 real time DSR; 14.21 Woot-based DSR
20. Makin’ Bread - Approx. 18.47 real time DSR; 14.18 Woot-based DSR
21. The Birthplace of Inspiration - Approx. 17.45 real time DSR; 13.39 Woot-based DSR
22. Going to a Cheesier Place - Approx. 48.1 real time DSR; 11.29 Woot-based DSR
23. Blending In - Approx. 80.33 real time DSR; 10.67 Woot-based DSR
24. I like you, but… - Approx. 15.01 real time DSR; 7.2 Woot-based DSR
25. Robo Hobo - Approx. 8.01 real time DSR; 3.48 Woot-based DSR
26. Sissy Sea Fight - Approx. 8.01 real time DSR; 3.05 Woot-based DSR

... and after all the chaos that has been the Monday reckoning the past several weeks, Congratulations to Acquired Taste for making it to the one year mark!

Oh, reckoning, you're just not the same without my flaming buddy...that doesn't sound right.

Narfcake wrote:... and after all the chaos that has been the Monday reckoning the past several weeks, Congratulations to Acquired Taste for making it to the one year mark!

Is it now on your "Let it Die List" along with Nevermore?

aramis525 wrote:Oh, reckoning, you're just not the same without my flaming buddy...that doesn't sound right.

It is indeed a different and darker place without his little light. But soon there will be cats.

Many cats.

citizencoyote wrote:It is indeed a different and darker place without his little light. But soon there will be cats.

Many cats.

I'm feeling kind of MEH about most of the fogged Cat entries - I thought it was going to be a wallet-emptying event on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and now I'm not so sure...

grahamcrackercoyote wrote:I'm feeling kind of MEH about most of the fogged Cat entries - I thought it was going to be a wallet-emptying event on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and now I'm not so sure...

I agree entirely. I was hording cash for this weekend's cat shirt explosion, but all of the ones currently in the fog just aren't doing it for me. The shirts that I would really want are currently running middle of the pack.

grahamcrackercoyote wrote:I'm feeling kind of MEH about most of the fogged Cat entries ...

Sometimes, I'm like ... "Really? This, in the fog?" Yeah, I do have votes for a couple of them, but I would love to see Rescue or Cat-ions instead of some that are currently up there.

Then I look on the bright side ... my wallet gets to take a break. I would've been buying those post-debut day anyways.

What's the likelihood of some of the noobs breaking into the top 20? I have the sense that Cheesier Place and Blending In are going to make a break for it at some point this week. Then again, my gut has been consistently wrong.

rockymike wrote:What's the likelihood of some of the noobs breaking into the top 20? I have the sense that Cheesier Place and Blending In are going to make a break for it at some point this week. Then again, my gut has been consistently wrong.

They both are very likely to survive this week. Looking at the "real time" DSR is a good indicator.

rockymike wrote:What's the likelihood of some of the noobs breaking into the top 20?

I want to make these numbers, but I want conformation that my OTHER maths are right first.

SO here's my "Look I'm contributing!"

I present, Weekly sales for the FightZone. These are the last three weeks, and the week they just lost, which may be inexact because of Woot-Off.

(12) Blossom . . . . . . . . . . . . . .[179]
(13) It Came Out Of Nowhere . . . [127] - [155] - [155] - [193]
(14) Code of Arms . . . . . . . . . . [157] - [174] - [ 97] - [153]
(15) Run Away! Run Away! . . . . .[121] - [154] - [151] - [148]
(16) Unstealthiest Ninja II . . . . . [138] - [139] - [143] - [213]
(17) Nevermore . . . . . . . . . . . .[140] - [126] - [144] - [175]
(18) Acquired Taste . . . . . . . . . [169] - [123] - [107] - [186]
(19) Schrödinger’s Equation . . . .[153] - [111] - [120] - [175]
(20) Makin’ Bread . . . . . . . . . . [138] - [117] - [123] - [205]
(21) The Birthplace of Inspiration [113] - [131] - [116] - [200]


And now I present the Trailing Numbers. If I've got this right, and correct me if I'm wrong, this is how many shirts more than #13 the shirt needs to make to get into 13th.

(13) It Came Out Of Nowhere . . . [ 0]
(14) Code of Arms . . . . . . . . . . [ 9]
(15) Run Away! Run Away! . . . . .[11]
(16) Unstealthiest Ninja II . . . . . [17]
(17) Nevermore . . . . . . . . . . . .[27]
(18) Acquired Taste . . . . . . . . . [38]
(19) Schrödinger’s Equation . . . .[53]
(20) Makin’ Bread . . . . . . . . . . [59]
(21) The Birthplace of Inspiration [77]

Last question: Would it be more valulable to know the Trailing numbers for say, 18th place rather than 13th. That would mean 13-17 would have negative numbers, representing the padding they have before they fall to that level.

rockymike wrote:What's the likelihood of some of the noobs breaking into the top 20? I have the sense that Cheesier Place and Blending In are going to make a break for it at some point this week. Then again, my gut has been consistently wrong.

3 Noobs will survive this week (the 3 derby shirts)...which means 3 established shirts will fall. As of right now every shirt from from 13 down could fall.

In the most danger
Schrödinger’s Equation
Makin’ Bread
The Birthplace of Inspiration

Raise your hand if you think ramyb gets double chopped...(how does one type cricket noises?)

bounty42 wrote:Would it be more valulable to know the Trailing numbers for say, 18th place rather than 13th. That would mean 13-17 would have negative numbers, representing the padding they have before they fall to that level.

Personally, put the line where the line actually is: Between 20 & 21....like this:

(13) It Came Out Of Nowhere . . . [ +59]
(14) Code of Arms . . . . . . . . . . [+50]
(15) Run Away! Run Away! . . . . .[+48]
(16) Unstealthiest Ninja II . . . . . [+42]
(17) Nevermore . . . . . . . . . . . .[+32]
(18) Acquired Taste . . . . . . . . . [+21]
(19) Schrödinger’s Equation . . . .[+6]
(20) Makin’ Bread . . . . . . . . . . [0]
(21) The Birthplace of Inspiration [-18]

Oh nooo, my kitty! ; ;

ochopika wrote:Oh nooo, my kitty! ; ;

Cross your fingers, but I have a feeling that your kitty will get some major sales this weekend from the kitty derby

ochopika wrote:Oh nooo, my kitty! ; ;

I'll FB the kitty so all my kitty loving friends dont forget to get one!

dcroe05 wrote:... Raise your hand if you think ramyb gets double chopped...(how does one type cricket noises?)

It's happened before.

Raise your hand if you think ramyb gets double chopped...(how does one type cricket noises?)[/quote]

It's inevitable to have more than one shirt on the chopping block when you're a great artist and have many shirts in the reckoning.
You know why Ramyb is such a great artist? Why he has many shirts that sell, and ones that sell a lot? Because he is adaptive. He designs shirts with different styles for different themes. His shirts appeal to many different people and you gotta give the guy due credit - he knows what people want, usually. He has excellent ideas, and he executes them really well.

ochopika wrote:Oh nooo, my kitty! ; ;

Even though I have yet to wear my first copy (a side effect of having 8+ months of unique Woot shirts), count me in for getting a second one.

I would so love it on an apron too.

Narfcake wrote:It's happened before.

"All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."

dcroe05 wrote:3 Noobs will survive this week (the 3 derby shirts)...which means 3 established shirts will fall. As of right now every shirt from from 13 down could fall.

In the most danger
Schrödinger’s Equation
Makin’ Bread
The Birthplace of Inspiration

Raise your hand if you think ramyb gets double chopped...(how does one type cricket noises?)

ramyb wrote:Cross your fingers, but I have a feeling that your kitty will get some major sales this weekend from the kitty derby

As I said in last week's reckoning thread, I don't often bother making predictions because they'd usually be wrong, but this week I'm going to take a chance. My guess is that both Ochopika's and Ramy's feline-themed shirts will get a boost from this week's derby and survive next Monday's reckoning. Consider it a tenth life, if you will.

Since it barely made it out of last week's Reckoning alive, I do think that Birthplace of Inspiration will probably fire its final synapses this week. (Note: I have no idea if I constructed that correctly, but I hope everybody gets my slapdash metaphor nonetheless.)

I'm pretty sure that either Acquired Taste or UNII: The Unstealthening will go, only because I don't think there's enough "rally" to go around for both. If it were up to me, I'd try to save The Unstealthening, since the DoOomkittens are still in diapers and Patrick has a new shirt moving up the Reckoning ranks. Unfortunately, I don't think I can justify buying 2 ninja shirts in one week on my current (very tight) budget, so it probably won't be even partially up to me.

Nevermore is definitely in danger, but it's not out of the question that someone might buy a few, or a few someones might buy one, just in hopes of getting it to the four-year mark. More likely, the third Danger Zone spot that's in question will go to either Run Away! Run Away! or, if the bunny leaps out of danger, possibly Code of Arms. I don't see It Came Out Of Nowhere going anywhere this week, but of course... I could be wrong.

I don't know why I went from not being willing to make any predictions to suddenly wanting to write a thesis on what's going to happen in this week's Reckoning... I hope I haven't bored you all too much! :-X

inkycatz wrote:"All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."

Thank you Architect.

Awwwww. Even WootBot misses the flaming UnNinja ...

Narfcake wrote:Awwwww. Even WootBot misses the flaming UnNinja ...

Well, WootBot misses a lot of things. Shirts getting reckoned, days of work, year changes, most of what goes on right under his robotic little nose...

... oh, wait, you meant "misses" in the emotional sense.

Narfcake wrote:Awwwww. Even WootBot misses the flaming UnNinja ...

Am I the only one who tried the link, just to be sure it's gone?

bounty42 wrote:Am I the only one who tried the link, just to be sure it's gone?

*raises hand sheepishly*

I've given up making reckoning predictions for the most part, having chucked the crystal ball long ago. I do think Birthplace of Inspiration will probably fall. Will the zombies or either kitty fall? How about the monkeys or the killer rabbit? I really have no idea. However, I think one victim will ultimately surprise us.

dcroe05 wrote:Personally, put the line where the line actually is: Between 20 & 21....like this:
. . .
(19) Schrödinger’s Equation . . . .[+6]
(20) Makin’ Bread . . . . . . . . . . [0]
(21) The Birthplace of Inspiration [-18]

Ok, I'll make note of that. Now, for the question of Noobs and semi-noobs. When comparing numbers, we're looking at [wk4+wk3+wk2+wk1]/28. But noobs are [wk4]/7. so every sale counts for 4 in catching up, correct? Then shirts with 1 week would be counting 2:1, 2 weeks count 1.3:1, and 3 weeks are starting up to normal. Correct?

So for Going to a Cheesier Place to catch The Birthplace of Inspiration would require it to sell 120 + 1:4 of what Birthplace does. Correct?

bounty42 wrote:Am I the only one who tried the link, just to be sure it's gone?

Nope, you were not. It hurts me seeing the huge RECKONED on it's page.

bounty42 wrote:Ok, I'll make note of that. Now, for the question of Noobs and semi-noobs. When comparing numbers, we're looking at [wk4+wk3+wk2+wk1]/28. But noobs are [wk4]/7. so every sale counts for 4 in catching up, correct? Then shirts with 1 week would be counting 2:1, 2 weeks count 1.3:1, and 3 weeks are starting up to normal. Correct?

So for Going to a Cheesier Place to catch The Birthplace of Inspiration would require it to sell 120 + 1:4 of what Birthplace does. Correct?

Ah, if only it were that simple. For shirts with less than 28 days on sale at the end of the Reckoning, you have to keep track of the actual total days on sale. So Cheesier Place will have 8.5 days of post-debut sales at noon on 2/20, while Birthplace of Inspiration will have the full 28.

I've started analyzing this by what each shirt needs to sell to end up with a targeted DSR by Noon on Monday. 20 seems to be a good target right now. (Unstealthiest Ninja was just a little over 20 for 21st place last week.) For a four-week shirt, that's 560 sales, and I adjust that total down for newer shirts. So Cheesier Place only needs 170 sales to get there.

By my count, Birthplace of Inspiration needed 185 more sales after last night to get there, and that's a tall order.

escapecar wrote:Ah, if only it were that simple. For shirts with less than 28 days on sale at the end of the Reckoning, you have to keep track of the actual total days on sale. So Cheesier Place will have 8.5 days of post-debut sales at noon on 2/20, while Birthplace of Inspiration will have the full 28.

Grrrreat.... *sigheS* so where does Narfcake keep the post-debut numbers?

inkycatz wrote:"All this has happened before, and all this will happen again."

j5 wrote:Thank you Architect.

Architect...isn't that The Matrix ?

I thought inky was quoting Battlestar.

grahamcrackercoyote wrote:I'm feeling kind of MEH about most of the fogged Cat entries - I thought it was going to be a wallet-emptying event on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and now I'm not so sure...

I don't get the Internet cat craze AT ALL. Why is a Darth Cat any better than a Darth Pig or a Darth Raccoon ?

The only entry I kinda-like (meaning I still probably wouldn't buy it) is "Lucky at Last". At least there's genuine situational irony specific to a particular type of cat, instead of the tired "cat + anything = cool" meme.

Meh indeed.

waveformblue wrote:I don't get the Internet cat craze AT ALL. Why is a Darth Cat any better than a Darth Pig or a Darth Raccoon ?

The only entry I kinda-like (meaning I still probably wouldn't buy it) is "Lucky at Last". At least there's genuine situational irony specific to a particular type of cat, instead of the tired "cat + anything = cool" meme.

Meh indeed.

Well, Darth Meow is a companion shirt to Boba Fetch (both totally cute, btw).

mrsstudrobinson wrote:Well, Darth Meow is a companion shirt to Boba Fetch (both totally cute, btw).

Had I known it was going to be a trilogy.... I would have bought Boba Fetch.

I can't start in the middle of the collection.

bounty42 wrote:Grrrreat.... *sigheS* so where does Narfcake keep the post-debut numbers?

What you really need are the first-day sales numbers. They are usually found in the last couple of posts in the comment thread for each shirt. Once you have those, you can use Narfcake's nightly posts to get the total sales and back into the post-debut numbers.

Of course, the one-hour Reckoning Sale during a Woot-off screws all of this up....and we're due for one either this week or next.

Woot fails for the week? Best Friends Forever had a whole seven comments? I mean really, after that writeup? Supersnark backfire.
And RoboHobo sold one, count them, ONE shirt? Really?
Zzzzzzzzzzz. Wake me when something happens.