Shirt.Woot

"You have until midnight tonight to buy these..."

Apparently I didn't do enough research to know that 11:53 pm is past midnight according to woot. No Acquired Taste = Mega Sad Face.

Serves me right to wait until the last minute, I guess.

Baseline figures for this week:

Legend: (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - baseline sales numbers.
(1) Lucky at last - 6716
(2) 1971-Floppy Diskette - 6568
(3) Shhhhhhh - 9491
(4) Nyan's Dream - 3297
(5) Family Portrait - 4159
(6) Lifetime Achievement Award - 4083
(7) Family Breakfast - 13344
(8) Hey! Listen! - 3169
(9) The Artist - 2276
(10) The Binge - 56105
(11) Blending In - 2057
(12) Nevermore - 46636
(13) Schrödinger’s Equation - 7870
(14) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - 5826
(15) They See Me Rollin' - 4429
(16) Code of Arms - 4974
(17) We’re more than famous! - 4727
(18) The Pen and The Sword - 2174
(19) Force Equation - 2241
(20) A Lot Of This Going Around - 2563
(21) Elements of Life - 2399
(22) 1985: Year of the Plumber - 3412
(23) Playing Koi - 3666
(24) 1981 - 3413
(25) Too Many Cooks - 1401
(26) A Superbotanical Study - 1356
(27) Artistic Growth - 1040
(91) Blending in to Night - 1347

Daily Sales Rates are for informational purposes only and are not 100% accurate.
1. Lucky at last - Approx. 124.3 real time DSR; 75.33 Woot-based DSR
2. 1971-Floppy Diskette - Approx. 189.33 real time DSR; 59.79 Woot-based DSR
3. Shhhhhhh - Approx. 67.53 real time DSR; 51.86 Woot-based DSR
4. Nyan's Dream - Approx. 62.78 real time DSR; 36.45 Woot-based DSR
5. Family Portrait - Approx. 49.94 real time DSR; 36.13 Woot-based DSR
6. Lifetime Achievement Award - Approx. 33.77 real time DSR; 25.93 Woot-based DSR
7. Family Breakfast - Approx. 33.67 real time DSR; 25.86 Woot-based DSR
8. Hey! Listen! - Approx. 36.83 real time DSR; 23.89 Woot-based DSR
9. The Artist - Approx. 43.37 real time DSR; 23.93 Woot-based DSR
10. The Binge - Approx. 28.05 real time DSR; 21.54 Woot-based DSR
11. Blending In - Approx. 29.33 real time DSR; 20.47 Woot-based DSR
12. Nevermore - Approx. 26.56 real time DSR; 20.39 Woot-based DSR
13. Schrödinger’s Equation - Approx. 25.4 real time DSR; 19.5 Woot-based DSR
14. Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - Approx. 24.56 real time DSR; 18.86 Woot-based DSR
15. They See Me Rollin' - Approx. 24.47 real time DSR; 18.79 Woot-based DSR
16. Code of Arms - Approx. 21.95 real time DSR; 16.86 Woot-based DSR
17. We’re more than famous! - Approx. 21.21 real time DSR; 16.29 Woot-based DSR
18. The Pen and The Sword - Approx. 23.77 real time DSR; 15.85 Woot-based DSR
19. Force Equation - Approx. 25 real time DSR; 15.71 Woot-based DSR
20. A Lot Of This Going Around - Approx. 33 real time DSR; 15.84 Woot-based DSR
21. Elements of Life - Approx. 20.33 real time DSR; 15.61 Woot-based DSR
22. 1985: Year of the Plumber - Approx. 66 real time DSR; 15.53 Woot-based DSR
23. Playing Koi - Approx. 18.42 real time DSR; 14.14 Woot-based DSR
24. 1981 - Approx. 88 real time DSR; 11.73 Woot-based DSR
25. Too Many Cooks - Approx. 19.8 real time DSR; 8.61 Woot-based DSR
26. A Superbotanical Study - Approx. 16 real time DSR; 8.3 Woot-based DSR
27. Artistic Growth - Approx. 14 real time DSR; 5.33 Woot-based DSR

dwimmz wrote:"You have until midnight tonight to buy these..."

Apparently I didn't do enough research to know that 11:53 pm is past midnight according to woot. No Acquired Taste = Mega Sad Face.

Serves me right to wait until the last minute, I guess.

Are you on central time?

rogue8402 wrote:Are you on central time?

It doesn't matter; Woot's definition of "midnight" for just-reckoned shirts on Mondays has slid up to a few minutes before.

rogue8402 wrote:Are you on central time?

Yes yes. If I had made *that* mistake, I would be a lot more angry with myself.

If I order Elements of Life now, will it still be on AA or have they switched to Anvil?

dwimmz wrote:"You have until midnight tonight to buy these..."

Apparently I didn't do enough research to know that 11:53 pm is past midnight according to woot. No Acquired Taste = Mega Sad Face.

Serves me right to wait until the last minute, I guess.

I ordered one in ML not too long ago, saw it was reconed and ordered a MXL after trying the ML on briefly to see if it would fit or not. So I have one in ML, unwashed, worn for about 45 seconds if you're interested.

polluxoil wrote:If I order Elements of Life now, will it still be on AA or have they switched to Anvil?

AA.

So Nevermore and Binge are the last surviving old-timers? Wow.

elfdreamer wrote:So Nevermore and Binge are the last surviving old-timers? Wow.

Yep.

Nevermore - 204 weeks.
The Binge - 129 weeks.
Family Breakfast - 16 weeks.
Schrodinger's Equation - 14 weeks.
Unstealthiest Ninja II - 10 weeks.

Even so, the last two have been close to the edge in recent weeks, so their days are numbered.

And the bloodbath begins. 1985: Year of the Plumber already moves up. This should be another good week.

I wasn't well one day last week and spent a rather embarrassing amount of time going back through all the reckoning pages until they stop. What I noticed was how many shirts used to last well over a year. Saw a bunch of stuff I wish I could buy now. Happily one is in the Mathcathalon! I think there are just a lot more artists submitting a lot more good designs. What Derby has had the most entries? This one sure seems like a lot.

Narfcake wrote:Yep.

Nevermore - 204 weeks.
The Binge - 129 weeks.
Family Breakfast - 16 weeks.
Schrodinger's Equation - 14 weeks.
Unstealthiest Ninja II - 10 weeks.

Even so, the last two have been close to the edge in recent weeks, so their days are numbered.

Nevermore also nearly bit the dust a few weeks ago, escaping the Reckoning with seconds to spare. It's had some strong weeks lately because of its flirtation with the Danger Zone, but...

Regarding shirts that used to last a much longer time, I've wondered about that myself. I assume it has something to do with Woot's growing popularity. Back in the early days shirts didn't need to sell as many to stay on the charts. Now, with the volume of sales Woot seems to do and the increasing quality of designs, it's harder for a shirt to keep up with the latest and greatest. Shirts that get reckoned after 3-5 months now probably would have lasted two to three times as long in the early days.

TIME ZONE is an issue - Woot is in Tejas and are on Central Time. I'm a left coaster so Midnight is at 10 pm for me

citizencoyote wrote:Nevermore also nearly bit the dust a few weeks ago, escaping the Reckoning with seconds to spare. It's had some strong weeks lately because of its flirtation with the Danger Zone, but...

Regarding shirts that used to last a much longer time, I've wondered about that myself. I assume it has something to do with Woot's growing popularity. Back in the early days shirts didn't need to sell as many to stay on the charts. Now, with the volume of sales Woot seems to do and the increasing quality of designs, it's harder for a shirt to keep up with the latest and greatest. Shirts that get reckoned after 3-5 months now probably would have lasted two to three times as long in the early days.

SO...are the artists doing better now by selling MORE shirts over LESS weeks? Anybody want to investigate?

maybe this reckoning wont be as dramatic as last one... please let this be so I cant afford to check the reckoning every couple hours!

I sorta discussed this last week, but shirts definitely follow a power law (originally said exponential) curve where the coefficients seem to be influenced by various factors (e.g. pop-culture, seasonality, etc.). Cutting to the chase, shirts that are capable of lasting more than 1.5 years seem to truly reach an equilibrium where each additional week probably only results in a decrease of a few shirts in terms of expected sales. In fact, far enough out on the curve, sales from new members may start to outweigh the decay factor and sales increase in absolute terms. More or less, Nevermore could be gone in 2 or 3 weeks or last years. Even if it is Reckoned, Nevermore would probably still be expected to sell 20 shirts per day years from now.

Edit: I screwed up a bit above, at first I assumed it was an exponential decay, but it technically follows a power law.

grahamcrackercoyote wrote:SO...are the artists doing better now by selling MORE shirts over LESS weeks? Anybody want to investigate?

Selling more shirts should be better no matter the time frame. The big difference will be budgeting.

Say 400 shirts sell. Before, that would happen over say 20 weeks. So, $2x400/20 = $40/week. Now it is 10 weeks, so $2x400/10= $80. Presuming weekly checks. Money is the same, but the artist gets all the money sooner.

grahamcrackercoyote wrote:SO...are the artists doing better now by selling MORE shirts over LESS weeks? Anybody want to investigate?

There are definitely more shirts (in absolute terms) being sold based on the list of bestsellers. Now, you might need to adjust for the increase in daily sales limits to fully determine it from a compensation angle, however.

I'm kind of in mourning right now. I go a couple of weeks without watching the reckoning and so many long-time survivors go down...

I had to relive the past reckonings to cope, and noticed that we haven't seen much from sekiyoku lately. Is she still designing?

So here's Narf Numbers, sorted by the Real Time DSR, rather than the woot. This isn't an exact measure of where things end, since there's always a heavy fighting not to be 21st, but it gives an idea of where the Skippy Squirrels are likely to end up:

2 (1) 1971-Floppy Diskette - 189.33 real time DSR
1 (2) Lucky at last - 124.3 real time DSR
24 (3) 1981 - 88 real time DSR
3 (4) Shhhhhhh - 67.53 real time DSR
22 (5) 1985: Year of the Plumber - 66 real time DSR
4 (6) Nyan's Dream - 62.78 real time DSR
5 (7) Family Portrait - 49.94 real time DSR
9 (8) The Artist - 43.37 real time DSR
8 (9) Hey! Listen! - 36.83 real time DSR
6 (10) Lifetime Achievement Award - 33.77 real time DSR
7 (11) Family Breakfast - 33.67 real time DSR
20 (12) A Lot Of This Going Around - 33 real time DSR
11 (13) Blending In - 29.33 real time DSR
10 (14) The Binge - 28.05 real time DSR
12 (15) Nevermore - 26.56 real time DSR
13 (16) Schrödinger’s Equation - 25.4 real time DSR
19 (17) Force Equation - 25 real time DSR
14 (18) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - 24.56 real time DSR
15 (19) They See Me Rollin' - 24.47 real time DSR

DANGER ZONE
18 (20) The Pen and The Sword - 23.77 real time DSR
16 (21) Code of Arms - 21.95 real time DSR
17 (22) We’re more than famous! - 21.21 real time DSR
21 (23) Elements of Life - 20.33 real time DSR
25 (24) Too Many Cooks - 19.8 real time DSR
23 (25) Playing Koi - 18.42 real time DSR
26 (26) A Superbotanical Study - 16 real time DSR
27 (27) Artistic Growth - 14 real time DSR

daver1617 wrote:I'm kind of in mourning right now. I go a couple of weeks without watching the reckoning and so many long-time survivors go down...

I had to relive the past reckonings to cope, and noticed that we haven't seen much from sekiyoku lately. Is she still designing?

Seriously?

Oh my.

Short story...not on woot.

Mavyn wrote:Seriously?

Oh my.

Short story...not on woot.

Seki was banned from Woot for theft of designs. If you want to read the whole sordid tale, you can start here.

citizencoyote wrote:Seki was banned from Woot for theft of designs. If you want to read the whole sordid tale, you can start here.

Has there been any confirmation that she has actually been banned? I thought we all just assumed she was banned

odysseyroc wrote:Has there been any confirmation that she has actually been banned? I thought we all just assumed she was banned

There's not a post by that user since the date of that shirt...

bounty42 wrote:There's not a post by that user since the date of that shirt...

That doesn't mean she was banned. She very well could have been, but we're all just assuming it's the truth.

Ack! I was incredibly busy at work yesterday and completely missed the (apparently) significant drama! I thought Monday mornings used to be crazy, but recently it's just been insane....

odysseyroc wrote:Has there been any confirmation that she has actually been banned? I thought we all just assumed she was banned

That's actually a good question. The thread I linked contains speculation, but you're right; there's no official word from Woot that I saw that she was banned. That doesn't mean she wasn't, but it seems odd that she never entered a derby after that one, even over a year and a half later. She was a popular and prolific artist, I find it hard to believe she would quit cold turkey voluntarily.

But maybe she did. At any rate, she no longer submits to Woot and hasn't posted in two years according to her old profile. It's entirely possible she goes by a different name in the art world now, because all the Seki art that comes up in a quick Google search dates back to 2010 or earlier.

citizencoyote wrote:That's actually a good question. The thread I linked contains speculation, but you're right; there's no official word from Woot that I saw that she was banned. That doesn't mean she wasn't, but it seems odd that she never entered a derby after that one, even over a year and a half later. She was a popular and prolific artist, I find it hard to believe she would quit cold turkey voluntarily.

But maybe she did. At any rate, she no longer submits to Woot and hasn't posted in two years according to her old profile. It's entirely possible she goes by a different name in the art world now, because all the Seki art that comes up in a quick Google search dates back to 2010 or earlier.

I guess the difference is, an artist could go underground for a while, change up their style and come back under a different username. I'm not saying that happened, but what would stop it from happening? I just think it's interesting because the talk is always that she was banned, but none of us know for sure.

odysseyroc wrote:I guess the difference is, an artist could go underground for a while, change up their style and come back under a different username. I'm not saying that happened, but what would stop it from happening? I just think it's interesting because the talk is always that she was banned, but none of us know for sure.

Here's my two cents:

I'm pretty sure she's gone. The whole affair that tanked her happened right around when I had my liver transplant. When I got caught up on the events surrounding the theft of the linked piece I made a mental note to start doing a bit more research on shirt design, and to avoid voting for that "artist" in particular. In fact, I would almost say that the event linked triggered my resolve to learn more about each artist, art styles, and things surrounding the shirt design community. I started looking in more to how designers conduct themselves when not posting up designs. Not only did I lose respect for artists that I once supported, but it also reaffirmed the impression that I got from reading certain derby threads.

To that end, I learned that she-who-must-not-be-named was a theif and liar.

Also, Walmazan is every bit the class act, nice guy, and solid designer that he comes across as.

Long story short, I think that her reputation was so thoroughly decimated by that debacle, that even if woot hasn't banned her, she destroyed her own support of the community at large, so no more votes would be coming her way.

bluejester wrote:Here's my two cents:

I'm pretty sure she's gone. The whole affair that tanked her happened right around when I had my liver transplant. When I got caught up on the events surrounding the theft of the linked piece I made a mental note to start doing a bit more research on shirt design, and to avoid voting for that "artist" in particular. In fact, I would almost say that the event linked triggered my resolve to learn more about each artist, art styles, and things surrounding the shirt design community. I started looking in more to how designers conduct themselves when not posting up designs. Not only did I lose respect for artists that I once supported, but it also reaffirmed the impression that I got from reading certain derby threads.

To that end, I learned that she-who-must-not-be-named was a theif and liar.

Also, Walmazan is every bit the class act, nice guy, and solid designer that he comes across as.

Long story short, I think that her reputation was so thoroughly decimated by that debacle, that even if woot hasn't banned her, she destroyed her own support of the community at large, so no more votes would be coming her way.

I agree that she killed her support in the community. Even the weekly "awww come on guys, all of this is just an unfortunate coincidence" crowd finally turned on her.

Also, Wences is definitely one of the genuinely nicest artists around.

citizencoyote wrote:Seki was banned from Woot for theft of designs. If you want to read the whole sordid tale, you can start here.

Thanks, for sharing the link. It's a shame that all that took place.

Mavyn wrote:Selling more shirts should be better no matter the time frame. The big difference will be budgeting.

Say 400 shirts sell. Before, that would happen over say 20 weeks. So, $2x400/20 = $40/week. Now it is 10 weeks, so $2x400/10= $80. Presuming weekly checks. Money is the same, but the artist gets all the money sooner.

From my experience, Woot sends monthly checks, so while it would make a difference, it probably wouldn't be an enormous one.

citizencoyote wrote:But maybe she did. At any rate, she no longer submits to Woot and hasn't posted in two years according to her old profile. It's entirely possible she goes by a different name in the art world now, because all the Seki art that comes up in a quick Google search dates back to 2010 or earlier.

In the art world, sure. It wouldn't help her here if she really was banned, because the checks would still be made out to the same person / SSN (I assume they keep those for tax purposes).

Valis wrote:In the art world, sure. It wouldn't help her here if she really was banned, because the checks would still be made out to the same person / SSN (I assume they keep those for tax purposes).

Woot requires a W-9 if you are in the US, a W-8 if you are not in the US. The SSN or other TIN can be matched with IRS e-services. So if someone wished to be paid by Woot for artwork and they used a false SSN or other TIN, they could be in bigger trouble than "merely" copying artwork.

A bit over a day, and here's where they're at:

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting. Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (1) Lucky at last - (+93) to 6809. Approx. 118.49 real time DSR; 80.97 Woot-based DSR
2 (2) 1971-Floppy Diskette - (+111) to 6679. Approx. 158.83 real time DSR; 71.47 Woot-based DSR
3 (3) Shhhhhhh - (+49) to 9540. Approx. 65.91 real time DSR; 53.61 Woot-based DSR
4 (4) Nyan's Dream - (+40) to 3337. Approx. 58.88 real time DSR; 39.03 Woot-based DSR
5 (5) Family Portrait - (+30) to 4189. Approx. 48.1 real time DSR; 37.4 Woot-based DSR
6 (7) Family Breakfast - (+35) to 13379. Approx. 33.33 real time DSR; 27.11 Woot-based DSR
7 (6) Lifetime Achievement Award - (+29) to 4112. Approx. 33.15 real time DSR; 26.96 Woot-based DSR
8 (9) The Artist - (+29) to 2305. Approx. 40.54 real time DSR; 25.93 Woot-based DSR
9 (8) Hey! Listen! - (+23) to 3192. Approx. 35.03 real time DSR; 25.14 Woot-based DSR
10 (10) The Binge - (+31) to 56136. Approx. 27.84 real time DSR; 22.64 Woot-based DSR
11 (11) Blending In - (+16) to 2073. Approx. 28.02 real time DSR; 21.21 Woot-based DSR
12 (12) Nevermore - (+15) to 46651. Approx. 25.73 real time DSR; 20.93 Woot-based DSR
13 (22) 1985: Year of the Plumber - (+46) to 3458. Approx. 54.35 real time DSR; 20.94 Woot-based DSR
14 (13) Schrödinger’s Equation - (+19) to 7889. Approx. 24.81 real time DSR; 20.18 Woot-based DSR
15 (15) They See Me Rollin' - (+29) to 4458. Approx. 24.37 real time DSR; 19.82 Woot-based DSR
16 (14) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - (+22) to 5848. Approx. 24.15 real time DSR; 19.64 Woot-based DSR
17 (24) 1981 - (+58) to 3471. Approx. 64.18 real time DSR; 19.47 Woot-based DSR
18 (20) A Lot Of This Going Around - (+25) to 2588. Approx. 30.65 real time DSR; 17.84 Woot-based DSR
19 (16) Code of Arms - (+15) to 4989. Approx. 21.38 real time DSR; 17.39 Woot-based DSR
20 (17) We’re more than famous! - (+28) to 4755. Approx. 21.25 real time DSR; 17.29 Woot-based DSR
21 (19) Force Equation - (+16) to 2257. Approx. 23.71 real time DSR; 16.63 Woot-based DSR
22 (18) The Pen and The Sword - (+15) to 2189. Approx. 22.7 real time DSR; 16.62 Woot-based DSR
23 (21) Elements of Life - (+18) to 2417. Approx. 19.98 real time DSR; 16.25 Woot-based DSR
24 (23) Playing Koi - (+11) to 3677. Approx. 17.87 real time DSR; 14.54 Woot-based DSR
25 (25) Too Many Cooks - (+14) to 1415. Approx. 18.01 real time DSR; 9.83 Woot-based DSR
26 (26) A Superbotanical Study - (+8) to 1364. Approx. 14.5 real time DSR; 8.89 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) Artistic Growth - (+15) to 1055. Approx. 13.46 real time DSR; 6.76 Woot-based DSR
91 (91) Blending in to Night - (+47) to 1394. Approx. 36.86 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
92 (92) I'll Be Back - (+3) to 929. Approx. 10.91 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR

1971 has a shot of taking over first place this week.

As a FYI, Lucky at Last is the second shirt in the reckoning to partially switch over to the imported blanks; Shhhhhhh was the first.

cmillard1 wrote:There are definitely more shirts (in absolute terms) being sold based on the list of bestsellers. Now, you might need to adjust for the increase in daily sales limits to fully determine it from a compensation angle, however.

The increased cap does affect the artists. I touched upon it in depth in this thread, which I admit I failed to revisit (Holiday season and all) and follow up with the additional calculation with the 6k sellers.

I might resume doing those calculations if/when my mood improves from the current matter. OTOH, the more I look back, the more cynical I grow ...

After all the recent drama, this looks to be a much quieter week of Reckoning. Spots 19-22 appear to be the only ones truly up in the air right now.