Shirt.Woot

Another Monday night, another start of a new reckoning ...

Legend: (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - baseline sales numbers.
(1) The Formula For Success - 7474
(2) Hungry Hungry Games - 5054
(3) Leonardo - 5048
(4) Casual Friday - 5062
(5) The Tyger - 4288
(6) Lucky Pig - 3226
(7) Shhhhhhh - 11379
(8) Artichokey - 3003
(9) Read - 4663
(10) The Start of Spring - 2837
(11) The Binge - 57244
(12) 1971-Floppy Diskette - 8415
(13) Family Breakfast - 14411
(14) Honey Badger Cares - 2651
(15) Nevermore - 47621
(16) Fire and Ice - 2070
(17) ProCATStination - 3561
(18) They’re too Short - 2900
(19) Lucky at last - 8663
(20) Curiosity - 3614
(21) Air Quoth - 1226
(22) 8-Bits to Rule Them All - 2163
(23) Finishing Move - 1125
(24) Where’s The Cheese? - 858
(25) I Got Your Tweet Right Here - 716
(26) Going Down With the Ship! - 421
(27) I Love Cats - 622
(91) Don’t Walk / Silly Walk - 615

Daily Sales Rates are for informational purposes only and are not 100% accurate.
1. The Formula For Success - Approx. 133.93 real time DSR; 84.17 Woot-based DSR
2. Hungry Hungry Games - Approx. 48.66 real time DSR; 37.36 Woot-based DSR
3. Leonardo - Approx. 110.41 real time DSR; 34.84 Woot-based DSR
4. Casual Friday - Approx. 43.85 real time DSR; 33.09 Woot-based DSR
5. The Tyger - Approx. 51.91 real time DSR; 31.45 Woot-based DSR
6. Lucky Pig - Approx. 36.94 real time DSR; 25.77 Woot-based DSR
7. Shhhhhhh - Approx. 32 real time DSR; 24.57 Woot-based DSR
8. Artichokey - Approx. 35.67 real time DSR; 23.14 Woot-based DSR
9. Read - Approx. 25.35 real time DSR; 19.46 Woot-based DSR
10. The Start of Spring - Approx. 23.03 real time DSR; 17.68 Woot-based DSR
11. The Binge - Approx. 22.75 real time DSR; 17.46 Woot-based DSR
12. 1971-Floppy Diskette - Approx. 21.63 real time DSR; 16.61 Woot-based DSR
13. Family Breakfast - Approx. 20.7 real time DSR; 15.89 Woot-based DSR
14. Honey Badger Cares - Approx. 22.57 real time DSR; 15.41 Woot-based DSR
15. Nevermore - Approx. 19.07 real time DSR; 14.64 Woot-based DSR
16. Fire and Ice - Approx. 24.23 real time DSR; 14.06 Woot-based DSR
17. ProCATStination - Approx. 18.33 real time DSR; 14.07 Woot-based DSR
18. They’re too Short - Approx. 17.86 real time DSR; 13.71 Woot-based DSR
19. Lucky at last - Approx. 17.35 real time DSR; 13.32 Woot-based DSR
20. Curiosity - Approx. 17.16 real time DSR; 13.18 Woot-based DSR
21. Air Quoth - Approx. 22.63 real time DSR; 12.48 Woot-based DSR
22. 8-Bits to Rule Them All - Approx. 25.84 real time DSR; 12.4 Woot-based DSR
23. Finishing Move - Approx. 14.01 real time DSR; 5.33 Woot-based DSR
24. Where’s The Cheese? - Approx. 39.08 real time DSR; 5.2 Woot-based DSR
25. I Got Your Tweet Right Here - Approx. 8.8 real time DSR; 3.83 Woot-based DSR
26. Going Down With the Ship! - Approx. 12.01 real time DSR; 2.82 Woot-based DSR
27. I Love Cats - Approx. 5.43 real time DSR; 2.81 Woot-based DSR

I just missed getting Last Wooter on Nyan. Started at 7 minutes till, but went through the process too quick, and someone got in after me.

It was worth a shot though. The halftones on that shirt were brilliant. It will be great to have a backup.

Who will come up with the best joke for "Going Down with the Ship?"

(Sorry walmazan!)

Wow low baselines for most of the foals. I would think only 8-Bits to Rule Them All has a shot of getting out of those in the danger zone.

gricomet wrote:Wow low baselines for most of the foals. I would think only 8-Bits to Rule Them All has a shot of getting out of those in the danger zone.

8 Bits (and Air Quoth, but not a foal) will likely survive and Where's the Cheese might survive (need another day or two to say definitively).

Monday AA Update: shirts listed as printing on AA

Always check the sizing guide for EACH shirt before ordering!

Changes from Reckoning 244 to 245: "The Start of Spring" no longer printing on AA in women's/men's sizes; "I Got Your Tweet Right Here" no longer printing on AA in women's/kids' sizes.

- The Formula For Success (men, women)
- Hungry Hungry Games (kids)
- Lucky Pig (all)
- Artichokey (all)
- The Start of Spring (kids) Change from Reckoning 244 to 245: men's/women's sizes now on Anvil
- The Binge (all)
- 1971-Floppy Diskette (all)
- Family Breakfast (all)
- Honey Badger Cares (kids)
- Nevermore (all)
- ProCATStination (women)
- They’re too Short (men, but there were reports two weeks ago that a 2XL arrived on Anvil)
- Air Quoth (men)
- Finishing Move (kids)
- I Got Your Tweet Right Here (men) Change from Reckoning 244 to 245: women's/kids' sizes now on Anvil
- Going Down With the Ship! (men, women)
- I Love Cats (men, women)
****
- The Little Things (men, women)
- Captain Green Beard (men)
- Spelling Bee (all)

Sierra Club Side Sale:
None


I think we can say with confidence that there are several truckloads of adult royal blue AA shirts in the woot warehouse (seven royal blue shirts are currently printing on AA in adult sizes), and I suspect we have The Binge to thank for that mega-bulk order of royal blue shirts. However, the only royal blue shirt listed as printing on AA in kids' sizes is "The Binge," so if you're interested, might want to pick that one up sooner rather than later.

It's amazing how we went from having a week where all of the shirts sold really well, to a week where sales were so-so or just not good at all (numerous shirts failing to break 1000 first day sales).

tjschaeffer wrote:It's amazing how we went from having a week where all of the shirts sold really well, to a week where sales were so-so or just not good at all (numerous shirts failing to break 1000 first day sales).

It won't be a NEWBPOCALYPSE this week, but it still won't be a pretty scene for the young'uns!

I find this interesting. I have only paid attention to the Reckoning over the last few months. I have come to be somewhat addicted to watching the ebbs and flows of shirt movements over time. I have been thinking about what is considered a successful shirt? How many shirts need to be sold for it to be called a success? I can’t say that placing in a derby means success because, from my observations, there seems to be a disconnect on what people vote for and what people buy.

So , how many shirts do you think need to be sold to consider it a success?

firefrogh wrote:I find this interesting. I have only paid attention to the Reckoning over the last few months. I have come to be somewhat addicted to watching the ebbs and flows of shirt movements over time. I have been thinking about what is considered a successful shirt? How many shirts need to be sold for it to be called a success? I can’t say that placing in a derby means success because, from my observations, there seems to be a disconnect on what people vote for and what people buy.

So , how many shirts do you think need to be sold to consider it a success?

I think everyone will have a different definition of shirt success. To me, a design is "successful" if it survives its debut week (i.e., escapes the Danger Zone). It may fall the second week, but at least it made it past that significant hurdle. However, a more significant metric is if a shirt outlives the four-week point, when the first week of sales no longer counts for its position in the Reckoning. If it can survive a week without that boost, then that's a pretty solid sign of success.

Finally, any shirt that has over 8K sales makes it into the unofficial Reckoning Watchers' Hall of Fame (posted by Narfcake every so often). That's definitely a sign of success.

firefrogh wrote:

So , how many shirts do you think need to be sold to consider it a success?

I haven't spent a heck of a lot of time looking at the numbers, but when I do look at the info for derby shirts, I get a little surprised if the shirt hasn't gotten to around 1,000 sales within a few days. Those are the shirts that should, theoretically, have a strong base of support from the start. Another gauge is if the newbie goes right to the bottom of the reckoning list. Again, those shirts should be able to make it past a week since customers voted for that design to print. I know many people will get it the first day it's out, but I expect those shirts to stick around for a little while.

For the dailies, those are hit and miss. Recently a few have been such direct references that if you don't get it/don't really care about it, then it's an easy shirt to pass over. Depending on the topic, the shirt can also attract a bunch of attention (Bazinga) to Woot and get a whole crop of new buyers in. That said, it would be nice if woot mixed it up a bit more with the dailies. I know the details were very different but I was pretty disappointed the other week when two consecutive shirts had "hug me" on them. Those could've been spaced out a bit more.

firefrogh wrote:So , how many shirts do you think need to be sold to consider it a success?

I guess that would sort of depend on the perspective. Woot's views on that number might be very different from that of a new artist who's just happy to get printed.

Maybe a good "average" definition is to print and survive the first Reckoning.

citizencoyote wrote:I think everyone will have a different definition of shirt success. To me, a design is "successful" if it survives its debut week (i.e., escapes the Danger Zone). It may fall the second week, but at least it made it past that significant hurdle. However, a more significant metric is if a shirt outlives the four-week point, when the first week of sales no longer counts for its position in the Reckoning. If it can survive a week without that boost, then that's a pretty solid sign of success.

Finally, any shirt that has over 8K sales makes it into the unofficial Reckoning Watchers' Hall of Fame (posted by Narfcake every so often). That's definitely a sign of success.

So...

Survive 1 Reckoning = Successful
Survive 4 Reckonings = Very Successful
8k+ = HOF Successful

I like your definitions.

dcroe05 wrote:So...

Survive 1 Reckoning = Successful
Survive 4 Reckonings = Very Successful
8k+ = HOF Successful

I like your definitions.

I think perhaps we should shift HOF Successful to 200% of potential opening day sales, as Shirts like Bazinga needed far less Reconning Juice to hit that 8K mark because of how many day 1 sales they had.

I agree with Bounty. There's definitely a distinction for me regarding the time of debut (i.e. 2007-2008 shirts need to reach a much lower baseline than 2012 shirts). Personally, I tend to look at longevity more than total sales.

Nowadays, I'd consider a shirt in my personal HOF if it sells 10-12k or more and/or if it lasts for 20 weeks or more. My "successful" standard is probably around 2500 shirts and/or surviving 2 Reckonings (i.e. 3 weeks on the chart).

bounty42 wrote:I think perhaps we should shift HOF Successful to 200% of potential opening day sales, as Shirts like Bazinga needed far less Reconning Juice to hit that 8K mark because of how many day 1 sales they had.

Wouldn't you be inclined to say that The Formula for Success is probably the exception? I mean, how many shirts have sold out on day 1 lately? Shhhh, 1971: Floppy Diskette and The Formula for Success are the only ones that come to mind. Some come close, and I'm sure a few hit the 8k mark, but I feel like if you upped that number to 12k, very few shirts would make the HOF.

tjschaeffer wrote:I'm sure a few hit the 8k mark, but I feel like if you upped that number to 12k, very few shirts would make the HOF.

I'd argue that very few should make a "Hall of Fame", probably no more than 8-10 per year, and that might be generous. Now, the standards for being successful or very successful should be pretty different. I'd consider They See Me Rollin' to be very successful, but it's nowhere near HOF standards.

cmillard1 wrote:I'd argue that very few should make a "Hall of Fame"

I'd argue that none should make a "Hall of Fame." Now a "Hamper of Fame" - that I could get behind. (Although I'd also suggest a "Hamper of Infamy.")

I think there's a difference between shirts that are a "success" from woot's perspective, from a sales perspective, from the artist's perspective, and perhaps from the community's perspective. For one artist, placing in the Derby and having a shirt printed might be a HUGE success, but perhaps "Going Down with the Ship!" might not be considered a success for Walzaman because of his track record of shirts printing and selling well. "The Dark Knight" was a success from a sales perspective, but I wouldn't be surprised if it cost Woot more money than it brought in, so it might not be a success from Woot's perspective.

Similarly, I think there's a difference between a shirt being a "success" and deserving a place in a "Hamper of Fame." The latter requires a little something more, IMHO: novelty, an impact on the community or shirt.woot generally...

FWIW, the 8k figure was an arbitrary one I set. At the time I started keeping track (from the 5k cap days), it was still a lofty goal. Before, there were the one-hour sales during the Woot-offs to quickly boost the figures (like 1000+ in the hour), but those have been non-existent for a few times now, meaning it's via the few-hundred-a-week instead.

Which brings how I came to the figure ... to hit the 8k mark, the design would pretty much have brought in at least $100k in revenue to Woot. Even at the current 6k sellout, it's attainable - (6000 @ $12) + (2000 @ $15) = $102k.

The Binge ... it's probably surpassed the $750k mark.

Anyways the favorites and rarities are here in a separate thread that I'll periodically update - usually after every side sales event.

Narfcake wrote:Which brings how I came to the figure ... to hit the 8k mark, the design would pretty much have brought in at least $100k in revenue to Woot.
Anyways the
favorites and rarities are here in a separate thread that I'll periodically update - usually after every side sales event.

Interesting...

On a side note, I think that with Woot's continuing to branch out the site, we need to split Rarities into Rari-tees, and Special items. It's hard to find the actual rare shirts among the longsleeves, bookbags, and hoodies now.

Narfcake wrote:

....

Anyways the
favorites and rarities are here in a separate thread that I'll periodically update - usually after every side sales event.

It would be kind of interesting to see you include how many weeks the current non-reckoned shirts on the favorites have been for sale as well. Might give an interesting perspective on how much more quickly (or not) shirts are getting to 8k+.

I really like that you've started a thread just for those two lists as I find both of those lists pretty interesting-not least of which to see how my taste matches up with the rest of the wootdom. So, thank you for putting in the effort to keep track of those as well.

bounty42 wrote:Interesting...

On a side note, I think that with Woot's continuing to branch out the site, we need to split Rarities into Rari-tees, and Special items. It's hard to find the actual rare shirts among the longsleeves, bookbags, and hoodies now.

Yeah, I noticed that as well as I was scanning through the list. I was wishing I had a rare tee and stumbled across the hoodie I bought on the list. I'm guessing most side sale items end up on the rarities.

Narfcake wrote:

Anyways the favorites and rarities are here in a separate thread that I'll periodically update - usually after every side sales event.

I'm glad you put them in a separate thread. The lists are very long, and people seemed to never edit the list out when quoting you. Keeping your comments about shirt and woot separate from the list would work too. I often miss that you said anything from the scrolling required.

aerc712 wrote:Who will come up with the best joke for "Going Down with the Ship?"

(Sorry walmazan!)

is it weird that i now want that shirt because it's sales are so low and people find it offensive?

i thought it was really cute, but i avoid titanic-related things. i was in high school when the movie came out and so many of my classmates' reactions (particularly the girls) were sickening and annoying.

then again maybe that explains why it's unpopularity and offending people makes me want it.

ljwilke wrote:is it weird that i now want that shirt because it's sales are so low and people find it offensive?

i thought it was really cute, but i avoid titanic-related things. i was in high school when the movie came out and so many of my classmates' reactions (particularly the girls) were sickening and annoying.

then again maybe that explains why it's unpopularity and offending people makes me want it.

For what it's worth, I don't dislike the design or find it offensive. It is cute, but I just wasn't a big fan of the paper ship detail. Probably would've liked it more if it was an actual ship. It was one of those designs where I liked it, just not enough to purchase it.

The comment was more of a play on the name of the design and how it unfortunately went down toward the bottom of the list.

ljwilke wrote:is it weird that i now want that shirt because it's sales are so low and people find it offensive?

i thought it was really cute, but i avoid titanic-related things. i was in high school when the movie came out and so many of my classmates' reactions (particularly the girls) were sickening and annoying.

then again maybe that explains why it's unpopularity and offending people makes me want it.

I was a 16 yrold girl when the movie came out, I have yet to see it. Though my sister has, she was friends with the type of girl who would have watched 5 times back to back if she coulda. Friend was sad she let go, sis was annoyed she dropped the thing in the ocean...


The ones complaining about dark humor need to read the definition of humor (and possibly a link to teeshirthell). It was sweet, not a joke.

loridi wrote:Yeah, I noticed that as well as I was scanning through the list. I was wishing I had a rare tee ...

This one is still available!

... and stumbled across the hoodie I bought on the list. I'm guessing most side sale items end up on the rarities.

The majority of them have. A couple did stand out, however ... Kitchen Warfare apron (2491) and the random 3-pack of AA blanks (5882). Speaking of blanks ... the white blanks were more popular than I anticipated; it sold 528.

aerc712 wrote:It was one of those designs where I liked it, just not enough to purchase it.

I liked it and voted on it, but when the chips were down, opted to pass. It's no so much a shirt I would buy as it is a shirt that I really hope turns up in the random packs.

Narfcake wrote:Speaking of blanks ... the white blanks were more popular than I anticipated; it sold 528.

Is it sad that the blanks sale was my favorite of the side sales? That is, sad besides the context of why the sale existed.

Got six randoms out of it and wear them as work shirts.

I noticed that 'Curiosity' made it out of the reckoning briefly, but is back there again. Dead cat bounce, maybe?

alanmedhurst wrote:I noticed that 'Curiosity' made it out of the reckoning briefly, but is back there again. Dead cat bounce, maybe?

Nine lives.

(Hopefully this isn't #9...)

A little over a day now, and this is where they stand:

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting. Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (1) The Formula For Success - (+118) to 7592. Approx. 131.77 real time DSR; 90.91 Woot-based DSR
2 (3) Leonardo - (+82) to 5130. Approx. 101.37 real time DSR; 43.47 Woot-based DSR
3 (2) Hungry Hungry Games - (+26) to 5080. Approx. 47.49 real time DSR; 38.29 Woot-based DSR
4 (4) Casual Friday - (+43) to 5105. Approx. 43.66 real time DSR; 34.72 Woot-based DSR
5 (5) The Tyger - (+39) to 4327. Approx. 50.39 real time DSR; 33.82 Woot-based DSR
6 (6) Lucky Pig - (+29) to 3255. Approx. 36.27 real time DSR; 27.12 Woot-based DSR
7 (7) Shhhhhhh - (+38) to 11417. Approx. 32.16 real time DSR; 25.93 Woot-based DSR
8 (8) Artichokey - (+38) to 3041. Approx. 35.64 real time DSR; 25.19 Woot-based DSR
9 (9) Read - (+18) to 4681. Approx. 24.94 real time DSR; 20.11 Woot-based DSR
10 (11) The Binge - (+29) to 57273. Approx. 22.95 real time DSR; 18.5 Woot-based DSR
11 (10) The Start of Spring - (+20) to 2857. Approx. 22.81 real time DSR; 18.39 Woot-based DSR
12 (12) 1971-Floppy Diskette - (+22) to 8437. Approx. 21.57 real time DSR; 17.39 Woot-based DSR
13 (14) Honey Badger Cares - (+33) to 2684. Approx. 23.15 real time DSR; 17.02 Woot-based DSR
14 (13) Family Breakfast - (+13) to 14424. Approx. 20.29 real time DSR; 16.36 Woot-based DSR
15 (16) Fire and Ice - (+23) to 2093. Approx. 23.92 real time DSR; 15.55 Woot-based DSR
16 (15) Nevermore - (+27) to 47648. Approx. 19.36 real time DSR; 15.61 Woot-based DSR
17 (17) ProCATStination - (+20) to 3581. Approx. 18.34 real time DSR; 14.79 Woot-based DSR
18 (18) They’re too Short - (+25) to 2925. Approx. 18.12 real time DSR; 14.61 Woot-based DSR
19 (19) Lucky at last - (+18) to 8681. Approx. 17.32 real time DSR; 13.96 Woot-based DSR
20 (22) 8-Bits to Rule Them All - (+20) to 2183. Approx. 24.74 real time DSR; 14 Woot-based DSR
21 (20) Curiosity - (+13) to 3627. Approx. 16.92 real time DSR; 13.64 Woot-based DSR
22 (21) Air Quoth - (+6) to 1232. Approx. 20.61 real time DSR; 12.9 Woot-based DSR
23 (24) Where’s The Cheese? - (+33) to 891. Approx. 34.71 real time DSR; 9.6 Woot-based DSR
24 (23) Finishing Move - (+13) to 1138. Approx. 13.6 real time DSR; 6.57 Woot-based DSR
25 (25) I Got Your Tweet Right Here - (+9) to 725. Approx. 8.73 real time DSR; 4.61 Woot-based DSR
26 (26) Going Down With the Ship! - (+11) to 432. Approx. 11.38 real time DSR; 4.12 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) I Love Cats - (+5) to 627. Approx. 5.33 real time DSR; 3.19 Woot-based DSR
91 (91) Don’t Walk / Silly Walk - (+34) to 649. Approx. 31.65 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
92 (92) The Little Things - (+3) to 1617. Approx. 40.37 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR

Narfcake wrote:The majority of them have. A couple did stand out, however ... Kitchen Warfare apron (2491) and the random 3-pack of AA blanks (5882). Speaking of blanks ... the white blanks were more popular than I anticipated; it sold 528.

I'm kicking myself that I didn't buy more blanks than I did. I've been wearing the blank ones as undershirts when applicable at work lately. So comfy!

Narfcake wrote:This one is still available!

I've been eyeing that one.

I am surprised it did so poorly. I don't see why people thought it was insensitive. Guess it's just one of those things that are in the eye of the beholder.

newnie wrote:I'm kicking myself that I didn't buy more blanks than I did. I've been wearing the blank ones as undershirts when applicable at work lately. So comfy!

I wear pretty much all my random shirts that i am not crazy about and could not trade out as undershirts for work. I agree they are amazingly comfortable, I used to go with the plain white tees from Costco which managed to be longer than AA shirts but were very stiff. It felt like I was wearing a second set of boxers! Not so with AA shirts, it will be sad when the transition is complete, it will be the end of my shirt purchases.

Sidenote: I am totally buying Wal's little cricket, design has really grown on me!

Narfcake wrote:A little over a day now, and this is where they stand:

Looks like the new Cheese has a good chance of making it out, but I'm not sure any of the other bottom dwellers have the momentum to escape. I think we'll see Lucky at Last bounce in and out a couple times, but final positions seem very much up for grabs.

loridi wrote:... Guess it's just one of those things that are in the eye of the beholder.

It pretty much is.

On another note, I did pass up on this rare shirt last week at Goodwill; I couldn't justify $2 for it. Nor would I justify $5 for this one in WL (nevermind I'm a guy, but egads, they're sure cut like one). Yeah - the Anvil shirts are showing up in thrift shops already.

Narfcake wrote:Nor would I justify $5 for this one in WL (nevermind I'm a guy, but egads, they're sure cut like one). Yeah - the Anvil shirts are showing up in thrift shops already.

Not surprising at all considering the sizing issue with the ladies Ts. It really surprises me how poorly that was handled. I wonder how much shirt cost service.woot has eaten due to poor communication of the change.

killerorca wrote:I wear pretty much all my random shirts that i am not crazy about and could not trade out as undershirts for work. I agree they are amazingly comfortable, I used to go with the plain white tees from Costco which managed to be longer than AA shirts but were very stiff. It felt like I was wearing a second set of boxers! Not so with AA shirts, it will be sad when the transition is complete, it will be the end of my shirt purchases.

Sidenote: I am totally buying Wal's little cricket, design has really grown on me!

Well, I'm female so I pretty much only wear them with button down shirts so only the blanks work for that purpose. Now if woot would start selling women's tank tops, I could probably wear those are undershirts as long as the neck doesn't plunge too low! HINT, HINT, WOOT.