grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote

Caffeine is losing energy and I have to decide whether I need another one.

meepee


quality posts: 33 Private Messages meepee

Look, a shirt that could've had a bunny but doesn't is actually doing pretty well in the Reckoning! (Consider that, ramyb...)

Narfcake


quality posts: 239 Private Messages Narfcake
grahamcrackercoyote wrote:Caffeine is losing energy and I have to decide whether I need another one.



You know the drill whenever you're on the fence on something. Heads, you buy. Tails, you buy.

Narfcake


quality posts: 239 Private Messages Narfcake

Your normally scheduled nightly numbers will be delayed due to the 2011 T-list ...

6:25am edit: Actually, your normally scheduled nightly numbers won't be here, on account that I konked out while I was doing it last night. Sorry!

dilettante


quality posts: 0 Private Messages dilettante

Wow, all the zombie options... gonna make for a rough reckoning for them next week!

On the other hand, I have to have a hoodie, a long-sleeved tee, a poster, paint the design on the hood of the car...

lonelypond


quality posts: 240 Private Messages lonelypond
Narfcake wrote:You know the drill whenever you're on the fence on something. Heads, you buy. Tails, you buy.



ha! noted.

elankat


quality posts: 7 Private Messages elankat

If the T-List items causes Acquired Taste to be Reckoned, I'm going to be annoyed.

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote
profbrendan wrote:Dunno about that. They pulled World Nom-ination for legal reasons but it still ended up in Barrels of Crud. In fact, a friend of mine owns one. Some "lucky" people got about a dozen.



Certainly possible, but the World Nomination mess also didn't have a company like DC involved.

The plethora of apparel in the "2011 Best of..." sale featuring Acquired Taste does make me wonder if it will have any last-minute impact on that shirt's survival. I'm a little surprised some of the stronger noobs did not manage to claw their way out over the weekend, too.

debragr


quality posts: 3 Private Messages debragr
Narfcake wrote:Your normally scheduled nightly numbers will be delayed due to the 2011 T-list ...

6:25am edit: Actually, your normally scheduled nightly numbers won't be here, on account that I konked out while I was doing it last night. Sorry!



Oh no...now you cannot tease Wootbot for not showing up this week!

Narfcake


quality posts: 239 Private Messages Narfcake

Less than 90 minutes left! ...

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting . Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers.
1 (4) Motivation - (+542) (+305 w/o W-O) to 5162
2 (2) The Birthplace of Inspiration - (+302) (+181 w/o W-O) to 4144
3 (3) Family Breakfast - (+581) (+283 w/o W-O) to 12167
4 (8) Vampires! - (+223) (+140 w/o W-O) to 3797
5 (5) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - (+404) (+196 w/o W-O) to 5011
6 (6) Code of Arms - (+288) (+139 w/o W-O) to 4223
7 (7) Makin’ Bread - (+323) (+177 w/o W-O) to 7798
8 (10) They See Me Rollin' - (+362) (+173 w/o W-O) to 3606
9 (23) Deep Sea Reader - (+186) (+119 w/o W-O) to 2087
10 (9) A Wild Night - (+238) (+130 w/o W-O) to 3904
11 (11) The Binge - (+418) (+174 w/o W-O) to 55158
12 (12) Run Away! Run Away! - (+323) (+131 w/o W-O) to 10398
13 (13) Meatatarian - (+292) (+145 w/o W-O) to 5937
14 (15) Nevermore - (+290) (+153 w/o W-O) to 45789
15 (17) It Came Out Of Nowhere - (+339) (+155 w/o W-O) to 36719
16 (14) Inevitable Betrayal - (+290) (+138 w/o W-O) to 5583
17 (16) Schrödinger’s Equation - (+299) (+149 w/o W-O) to 7081
18 (20) Unstealthiest Ninja - (+327) (+194 w/o W-O) to 13946
19 (18) Using Your Melon - (+189) (+94 w/o W-O) to 2869
20 (19) Acquired Taste - (+293) (+153 w/o W-O) to 21042
21 (26) Astral Ark - (+156) (+109 w/o W-O) to 1631
22 (24) Astronomical Alignment - (+137) (+104 w/o W-O) to 1830
23 (21) Caffeine Power Up - (+267) (+158 w/o W-O) to 4075
24 (22) Jump For It - (+101) (+69 w/o W-O) to 1565
25 (25) Ghost Writer - (+91) (+64 w/o W-O) to 1743
26 (27) Rise! Rise! Rising Sun! - (+93) (+66 w/o W-O) to 1488
91 (91) Detecting A Class 5 Fruit Event Incoming - (+62) (+39 w/o W-O) to 887
92 (92) Shhhhhhh - (+823) to 6823
93 (93) "A Farewell To Arms" - (+42) to 711
94 (94) Carrots - (+57) to 1297
95 (95) Underwater Forest - (+65) to 1622
96 (96) Hold Still Guys! - (+115) to 2519
97 (97) Waiting for the suB - (+17) to 676

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
citizencoyote wrote:Certainly possible, but the World Nomination mess also didn't have a company like DC involved.

The plethora of apparel in the "2011 Best of..." sale featuring Acquired Taste does make me wonder if it will have any last-minute impact on that shirt's survival. I'm a little surprised some of the stronger noobs did not manage to claw their way out over the weekend, too.



If I understand how the cycle is working, expect the shirts that have been battling for two weeks to move way up 'relationally.'

Remember, everyone looses sales from 4 weeks ago, and adds a new week. For those at the bottom fighting they've got 1 good week (this) or two good weeks (this and last) but the ones before that were very poor, hense the need to battle. So they're trading a poor week for a good one. Shirts in the 11-15 range are coasting on 4 average weeks, so when it's 1 bad+2 good+this week I expect that to be better than 3 average weeks + this week.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

dcroe05


quality posts: 12 Private Messages dcroe05

It's looking, more and more, like the zombies have a little unlife left in them (sales were much better in the latter half of the week). With 80 minutes to go AT would have to lose 2 places to be buried forever.

elankat


quality posts: 7 Private Messages elankat

One hour to go & AT is back down to 20.

dcroe05


quality posts: 12 Private Messages dcroe05

A lot of shuffling in the 18-20 spots.

Looking at the math, none of these are safe. Astral Ark jumping up to 20 is certainly possible and Melon, UnNinja, and the Zombies are all within a couple sales of each other.

debragr


quality posts: 3 Private Messages debragr
dcroe05 wrote:A lot of shuffling in the 18-20 spots.

Looking at the math, none of these are safe. Astral Ark jumping up to 20 is certainly possible and Melon, UnNinja, and the Zombies are all within a couple sales of each other.



Right, but for any shirt in the reckoning less than 4 weeks, (Astral Ark and Melon) each sale "counts" for more because it is averaged over fewer days.

Time, and the reckoning, will tell...

ramyb


quality posts: 20 Private Messages ramyb

Wow, if the DSRs are right, then astral ark missed moving in by a single sale- close call

dcroe05


quality posts: 12 Private Messages dcroe05

And as it turns out the Flaming Ninja owes it's continued survival to the sudden disappearance of The Opposite-of-Light One-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named.

On another note, patrickspens better go top 3 in a derby pretty soon, or his run of having a shirt in every reckoning for more than a year will end.

ramyb wrote:Wow, if the DSRs are right, then astral ark missed moving in by a single sale- close call



My numbers support that--Astral Ark was 1 sale away. But of course, when figuring in a WootOff numbers could be off anywhere from 0-10 for each design.

kharmazero


quality posts: 4 Private Messages kharmazero
ramyb wrote:Wow, if the DSRs are right, then astral ark missed moving in by a single sale- close call



i bought 3 after the reckoning, me stupid, i go cry now ,-(((

WootBot


quality posts: 14 Private Messages WootBot

Staff

The votes have been tallied, the chads un-hung, and the losers appropriately shamed in their own little grayed out box. Behold, Shirt.Woot users! Your Reckoning! Take a long, last look at these poor, pitiful shirts. Today's your last chance to buy:
 

 

Narfcake


quality posts: 239 Private Messages Narfcake

The closing numbers as of 40 minutes ago. It's hard to Woot when the boss is next to you.

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting . Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers.
1 (4) Motivation - (+551) (+314 w/o W-O) to 5171
2 (2) The Birthplace of Inspiration - (+306) (+185 w/o W-O) to 4148
3 (3) Family Breakfast - (+583) (+285 w/o W-O) to 12169
4 (8) Vampires! - (+230) (+147 w/o W-O) to 3804
5 (5) Unstealthiest Ninja II: The Unstealthening - (+406) (+198 w/o W-O) to 5013
6 (6) Code of Arms - (+289) (+140 w/o W-O) to 4224
7 (7) Makin’ Bread - (+330) (+184 w/o W-O) to 7805
8 (10) They See Me Rollin' - (+364) (+175 w/o W-O) to 3608
9 (23) Deep Sea Reader - (+186) (+119 w/o W-O) to 2087
10 (9) A Wild Night - (+241) (+133 w/o W-O) to 3907
11 (11) The Binge - (+422) (+178 w/o W-O) to 55162
12 (12) Run Away! Run Away! - (+324) (+132 w/o W-O) to 10399
13 (13) Meatatarian - (+296) (+149 w/o W-O) to 5941
14 (15) Nevermore - (+292) (+155 w/o W-O) to 45791
15 (17) It Came Out Of Nowhere - (+344) (+160 w/o W-O) to 36724
16 (14) Inevitable Betrayal - (+291) (+139 w/o W-O) to 5584
17 (16) Schrödinger’s Equation - (+306) (+156 w/o W-O) to 7088
18 (19) Acquired Taste - (+303) (+163 w/o W-O) to 21052
19 (18) Using Your Melon - (+193) (+98 w/o W-O) to 2873
20 (20) Unstealthiest Ninja - (+332) (+199 w/o W-O) to 13951
21 (26) Astral Ark - (+158) (+111 w/o W-O) to 1633
22 (24) Astronomical Alignment - (+139) (+106 w/o W-O) to 1832
23 (21) Caffeine Power Up - (+275) (+166 w/o W-O) to 4083
24 (22) Jump For It - (+103) (+71 w/o W-O) to 1567
25 (25) Ghost Writer - (+92) (+65 w/o W-O) to 1744
26 (27) Rise! Rise! Rising Sun! - (+95) (+68 w/o W-O) to 1490
91 (91) Detecting A Class 5 Fruit Event Incoming - (+62) (+39 w/o W-O) to 887
92 (92) Shhhhhhh - (+840) to 6840
93 (93) "A Farewell To Arms" - (+42) to 711
94 (94) Carrots - (+58) to 1298
95 (95) Underwater Forest - (+66) to 1623
96 (96) Hold Still Guys! - (+122) to 2526
97 (97) Waiting for the suB - (+17) to 676

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42

SO how is the woot off going to affect the numbers?



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

Narfcake


quality posts: 239 Private Messages Narfcake
bounty42 wrote:SO how is the woot off going to affect the numbers?


That's just it - the Woot off sales do NOT affect the shirt's ranking, hence the need for us number nerds to keep tabs on them, and why the nightly posts have the 'without Woot- off' figures.

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote

It's also why dcroe noted the numbers that Astral Ark needed to survive could have been in a fairly wide range, since our woot-off numbers are somewhat imprecise (dependent on someone checking starting and ending sales numbers at the same time Woot does, etc.)

The cat, zombies and flaming ninja have another strong week of sales figured in to their four-week averages. Even if they don't climb very high next week, they will be difficult to knock off.* Based on limited evidence and my own horribly imprecise crystal ball, I only see Hold Still Guys! getting out of the Danger Zone next Reckoning (Shhhhhhh will debut at or near the top, so it doesn't count).



*Just checked, the cat, zombies and ninja are replacing weeks that had only about half of what they got this week (if I'm checking the correct numbers).

dcroe05


quality posts: 12 Private Messages dcroe05
Narfcake wrote:That's just it - the Woot off sales do NOT affect the shirt's ranking, hence the need for us number nerds to keep tabs on them, and why the nightly posts have the 'without Woot- off' figures.



To expand on Narfcake's answer.

He's right, no direct effect.

However it does impact reckonings in 2 ways I can think of.

1. The other sales on Woot-Off days, (i.e., the full price sales during the other 23 hours) are significantly higher than a regular day. Shirts that were around for a WootOff will have an increased chance of survival over noobs for a little while.

2. Woot-Offs introduce a little more error into the calculations, because we never know exactly how many WootOff sales there were.

citizencoyote wrote:*Just checked, the cat, zombies and ninja are replacing weeks that had only about half of what they got this week (if I'm checking the correct numbers).



I just checked, and you are correct.

profbrendan


quality posts: 7 Private Messages profbrendan
ellegee wrote:Forgive my newness, yet again, but what is Barrels of Crud?


Sorry, the ol' Woot filter got me. 'Bag of C.r.a.p.' is what I was going for, the crazy popular deal that the main woot site sells once in awhile. Usually contains surplus stuff from previous sales.

citizencoyote wrote:Certainly possible, but the World Nomination mess also didn't have a company like DC involved.


Also true.

paigeg


quality posts: 7 Private Messages paigeg
ellegee wrote:Forgive my newness, yet again, but what is Barrels of Crud?



Bags of C.R.A.P., the wildcard sale during WootOffs. You try to buy one, with absolutely no idea what may be in it. Could be something Dot's Poetry Corner, or really cool. C.R.A.P.shoot.

/edit: Good grief! OK, so 'Dot's Poetry Corner' is Woot for l.a.m.e.