ThunderThighs


quality posts: 569 Private Messages ThunderThighs

Staff

Just tossing this out to see what y'all think.

What about creating a thread in World of Shirt.Woot for discussing the Reckoning stats, calculations, theories, and other such topics?

It would also let you continue the discussions from week to week rather than having to refer back to other threads.

That would leave this thread for the "Oooooh, will that shirt make it past Monday?" kinds of discussions.

Still post your sales numbers here, of course. I'm just thinking the raw math and statistically discussions.



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neuropsychosocial


quality posts: 171 Private Messages neuropsychosocial

Renegadetim: I am no longer posting regularly on woot, but someone let me know that you'd responded to a previous post of mine and I might want to take a look. I think there are some significant misconception of my analysis in your post, so I hope that you'll forgive me for dropping by to clarify a few things, but not sticking around. I'll try to hew closely to "facts" versus "discussion" (or commentary) in offering a few clarifications.

renegadetim wrote:In all honesty, this data isn't really a definitive measure at all in regards to sales.

Sales numbers are, in fact, a definitive measure of sales.

Yeah, it's kind of surprising and may say something, but regardless of what it says, it doesn't say the redesign, the blanks, or the price increase are the reason for it.

I agree with you 100% here. I just re-read my post and I didn't make any claims about the reasons for the decreases in sales: just said that it larger than I expected. (We've been tracking sales data for over a year now and by the time that I made the post to which you're responding, I'd already demonstrated that sales had dropped again, so my starting position for this analysis was based on a previous analysis. That data may not have been posted here: I've been involved for a while in maintaining Narfcake's spreadsheet, but he doesn't let me post the nightly numbers, so it may not have been clear that I'd already calculated how much the numbers had dropped.)

The only possible way to come up with something like that would be much more in depth and maybe knowing you and Narf, you'd be willing to do it. But it would require some kind of ratio to how popular those particular designs were in relation to these. Not to mention price being an issue(1st day sales vs sales during week, not including woot off sales).

I'd like to see a week vs week comparison, and a month vs month comparison around the time of the price changes, blank changes and then from the site redesign as well.

I can't recall seeing your name around the Reckoning thread much, so I'm guessing that you haven't been following the full analysis that I've been doing. If you have and I don't remember your name, please accept my apologies and skip reading the following summary.

I looked at:
- price increase
- artist
- debut blank for women
- debut blank for men
- debut blank for children
- blank changes (i.e., shirts that debuted on AA and transitioned to Anvil before they were Reckoned)
- color
- day of the week
- reason for being on sale: Daily, Derby1, Derby2, Derby3, Editors' Choice, or random
- first day sales
- sales including first day until Reckoned (through midnight on Monday of Reckoning)
- weeks available in the Reckoning

I've shared a small portion of those results with other wooters off-woot, but I've chosen not to post that information on woot because, frankly, I can either make money off the analysis indirectly (by writing it up and submitting it for publication, thereby increasing my chances of earning a merit raise at my job) or I can give it to woot for free but receive no benefit myself. Since I put about 60 hours into this over two months, at the cost of some productivity at my job, I'd like to salvage something out of it in terms of my job!

I have also, to the best of my knowledge, not referred to those results on woot. The analysis to which you are responding was a simple calculation of sales achieved by adding up sales numbers (and dividing sales numbers to achieve percentages).

This information you are presenting is faulty because there were some VERY popular shirts in that particular reckoning.

Part of what I do for a living involves teaching statistics and research methods to both undergraduate and graduate students, so I'm going to make a really important point before I end up largely agreeing with you. I hope you'll consider what I'm saying, even if it sounds a bit like splitting hairs, because it actually matters quite a bit.
- The information that I presented was not faulty at all: the information was based on sales data provided directly from woot. You may disagree with the analysis or the metric, but the information was not faulty.
- I think what you're trying to say is that, in your opinion, comparing sales from the week of June 8, 2011 to the week of June 8, 2012 is meaningless, because the shirts that are being offered now aren't as "popular" (i.e., selling well) as the ones being offered then. That's an absolutely fundamental flaw in your argument: you're saying that the shirts selling a year ago were selling better than the shirts selling now, so it's unfair to say that the shirts selling now are selling fewer shirts.

I'd also argue that one week's worth of shirt sales is a fine measurement to compare to another week's worth of shirt sales, as long as one specifies the units and doesn't extrapolate beyond one's data. In this case, I firmly believe that - according to the best practices of professional statistics - I was quite accurate about my units, my metrics, and my conclusions.

I think your basic, fundamental point is that comparing sales from a week a year ago to a week now might be interesting but is essentially pointless. I agree with you 100% there.

Even then, it's based on the popularity of the designs, you can't blame/pinpoint any of it on price, blanks, redesign.

Actually, no: you can, using sufficient data and appropriate statistics. As I mentioned, I've chosen not to post those results here and I think it would be utterly unfair to "tease" them by saying anything about them.

I feel like you are trying to prove a point as to how much sales have dropped because of the blank change and redesign, but using variables that favor your argument when there are many other variables in play here. Also, didn't you say there was a woot-off during that particular week?

To answer your second point first: no, there was not a woot-off during the week of 216. There was a woot-off during the week of 215, which is why I chose not to analyze those sales.

It sounds like you might be a little confused between my references to the data Narfcake collected during 201 and my analysis of the data Narfcake collected during 216; several of the shirts that you mention as having been popular and thus skewing my analysis of sales during Reckoning 216 were long Reckoned by Reckoning 216. Although I mentioned that the data from Reckoning 201 wasn't sufficient for analysis so our best comparison was data from Reckoning 216, I can see how easy it would be to get confused by that. [And yes, there was a woot-off during Reckoning 201, but that doesn't affect the sales data from Reckoning 216 for obvious reasons. ]

That would clearly skew the sales for that particular week, ESPECIALLY since there were VERY popular shirts at that time. There were at least 5, maybe 8, sell out first day shirts(Liederkranz, Poison, Library, Acquired, and UnNinja were definite sell outs, and I think In harmony, Meh, and "they're watching" were too) on that list and 8 or more shirts that were #1 on the reckoning at some point in their lives on that list. Nothing of which you could say about current shirts, but that's because of the designs themselves, not everything else.

Once again, you can't have it both ways: you're saying that it's unfair to compare sales because a year ago, some shirts were selling better than some shirts now. Yeah, that's pretty much what I said.

If you've taken any statistics, you're familiar with the concept of "correlation is not causation." Of all the posters on woot, I believe I don't cross that line. Some wooters, including some posters that I think I'm associated with, have insisted that the decrease in sales is the result of the change of blanks. I'm kinda wondering if you're conflating my analysis demonstrating correlation with the claims by others of causation, because you'd have to perform a personality transplant on me in order to get me to acknowledge that ANYTHING causes ANYTHING else.

(Oh, I guess I've said a few times that there must be something fundamentally wrong with me because anyone I care about ends up hurting me, resulting in this personality. I maintain that particular correlation must involve causation somehow, but I fully admit that I can't demonstrate it quantitatively!)

I hope that clears up a few things. I've been teaching long enough to know that I rarely explain things as clearly as I thought that I explained them so my apologies if I've made things worse instead of clearer.

RIP A.A. Blanks (Obituary)

neuropsychosocial


quality posts: 171 Private Messages neuropsychosocial
ThunderThighs wrote:Just tossing this out to see what y'all think.

What about creating a thread in World of Shirt.Woot for discussing the Reckoning stats, calculations, theories, and other such topics?

It would also let you continue the discussions from week to week rather than having to refer back to other threads.

That would leave this thread for the "Oooooh, will that shirt make it past Monday?" kinds of discussions.

Still post your sales numbers here, of course. I'm just thinking the raw math and statistically discussions.

TT, if woot wants the numbers people gone, just tell us to go already; there's no need to frustrate the numbers folks into leaving by confusing the numbers discussions by asking us to post the numbers here but take any relevant discussion that arises from posting the numbers to another thread. Woot is free to keep asking us to do their work for free and obviously woot is free to dictate what we can discuss and where we can discuss it, but when the frustration, confusion, or apathy outweigh the benefits... Seriously, I think most of us would rather just be asked to leave; the mixed messages are getting old.

However, my opinion may not be relevant since I'm done with the numbers and I'm done with posting unless someone lets me know that there's been a response to a post of mine, as happened this evening.

RIP A.A. Blanks (Obituary)

ThunderThighs


quality posts: 569 Private Messages ThunderThighs

Staff

neuropsychosocial wrote:TT, if woot wants the numbers people gone, just tell us to go already; ....

Not what I said at all. I asked for feedback on an idea. This thread was originally intended to discuss the reckoning itself. Narfcake added his list of sales for the reckoning which are very interesting and useful in this thread.

However, there's a very small group of people interested in talking about the mechanics behind the numbers. I just don't want to see the casual poster squeezed out of discussing the reckoning & shirts on the reckoning.

I think a thread devoted to the mechanics of the statistics and calculations is fine. I'm just suggesting that it would be better served in its own continuous thread. You might even garner more participants to the conversation if you pull it out of the Reckoning thread and into more visible World of Shirt.Woot.

There's room for both discussions.



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rockymike


quality posts: 16 Private Messages rockymike



In other news, it looks like most of the bystanders have a good shot and surviving next week. This could be the record-breaker we've needed to liven things up a bit.

Yeah, so there's that...

thebowlingjew


quality posts: 1 Private Messages thebowlingjew
ThunderThighs wrote:Not what I said at all. I asked for feedback on an idea. This thread was originally intended to discuss the reckoning itself. Narfcake added his list of sales for the reckoning which are very interesting and useful in this thread.

However, there's a very small group of people interested in talking about the mechanics behind the numbers. I just don't want to see the casual poster squeezed out of discussing the reckoning & shirts on the reckoning.

I think a thread devoted to the mechanics of the statistics and calculations is fine. I'm just suggesting that it would be better served in its own continuous thread. You might even garner more participants to the conversation if you pull it out of the Reckoning thread and into more visible World of Shirt.Woot.

There's room for both discussions.



Personally, I like having the numbers posted and discussed here. I think those that post the numbers participate in the "Oooooh, will that shirt make it past Monday?" discussions, too. That is, they engage the non-number poster/seeker folk in that conversation.

neuropsychosocial wrote:there's no need to frustrate the numbers folks into leaving by confusing the numbers discussions by asking us to post the numbers here but take any relevant discussion that arises from posting the numbers to another thread.



I agree w/ NPS in that posting the numbers here but separating the discussion about those numbers into a different thread would be confusing.

Just the opinion of a frequent Day of Reckoning thread reader and infrequent poster.

grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote

My couple of cents [sense? ] - TT's idea isn't rotten, but may not be necessary either. All the extra talk about mechanics - and it seems to have gone up - has happened since the changeover when numbers became scarce - once the numbers are once again easily accessible [I still have NO CLUE where they're getting the NUMBERS from AND I'm pretty good at surfing wonky websites] all the extra discussion should subside.

This thread has always been hidden pretty deep into things - you have to find the main Reckoning page and then make it all the way to the end of the list to notice the discussion - if you want more folks commenting, they have to know WHAT the Reckoning is and WHERE the Reckoning is [THIS has been fixed].

EDIT: NOW I know WHERE the numbers are after following Narfs next post!

Narfcake


quality posts: 287 Private Messages Narfcake

Another twin sets of numbers, one from Friday night/Saturday morning that Neuro grabbed when I wasn't around, and one from 8 minutes ago.

(As of Friday night/Saturday morning)
Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - total quantity as of this posting. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (3) Thanks For All The Fish - at 4841. Approx. 62.64 real time DSR; 54.57 Woot-based DSR
2 (4) Star Powered - at 4311. Approx. 53.27 real time DSR; 45.68 Woot-based DSR
3 (1) The Formula For Success - at 11538. Approx. 34 real time DSR; 32.36 Woot-based DSR
4 (2) Family Breakfast - at 16195. Approx. 28.6 real time DSR; 27.21 Woot-based DSR
5 (12) The Keepers of the Word - at 0. Approx. -270.91 real time DSR; -239.04 Woot-based DSR
6 (5) Iron or Gold - at 2959. Approx. 19.48 real time DSR; 18.05 Woot-based DSR
7 (6) Leonardo - at 7414. Approx. 19.7 real time DSR; 18.75 Woot-based DSR
8 (7) Nightmeow on Elm Street - at 3075. Approx. 18.65 real time DSR; 17.75 Woot-based DSR
9 (8) Relative Dimensions - at 5484. Approx. 18.2 real time DSR; 17.32 Woot-based DSR
10 (10) Shhhhhhh - at 13055. Approx. 17.64 real time DSR; 16.79 Woot-based DSR
11 (9) Cheater - at 3317. Approx. 16.89 real time DSR; 16.07 Woot-based DSR
12 (11) The Binge - at 58885. Approx. 17.19 real time DSR; 16.36 Woot-based DSR
13 (15) Artichokey - at 4369. Approx. 15.05 real time DSR; 14.32 Woot-based DSR
14 (13) Nevermore - at 48986. Approx. 15.09 real time DSR; 14.36 Woot-based DSR
15 (24) Star Fishing - at 1217. Approx. 18.38 real time DSR; 15.07 Woot-based DSR
16 (17) 1971-Floppy Diskette - at 9828. Approx. 14.45 real time DSR; 13.75 Woot-based DSR
17 (14) Graiiiinss - at 2355. Approx. 14.16 real time DSR; 13.43 Woot-based DSR
18 (18) Forever Toasty - at 1277. Approx. 14.47 real time DSR; 13.51 Woot-based DSR
19 (16) The Guy In The Apartment B - at 1734. Approx. 14.79 real time DSR; 13.58 Woot-based DSR
20 (21) Casual Friday - at 6599. Approx. 13.47 real time DSR; 12.82 Woot-based DSR
21 (22) Only Memories - at 3640. Approx. 13.13 real time DSR; 12.5 Woot-based DSR
22 (20) One in Every Group - at 1367. Approx. 13.29 real time DSR; 12.49 Woot-based DSR
23 (23) Break Free - at 1247. Approx. 13.62 real time DSR; 12.34 Woot-based DSR
24 (19) Secret Love - at 1964. Approx. 12.64 real time DSR; 11.91 Woot-based DSR
25 (26) Preparing The Night - at 1116. Approx. 14.13 real time DSR; 11.88 Woot-based DSR
26 (25) A Day at the Loch - at 874. Approx. 10.04 real time DSR; 9.04 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) Overkill - at 293. Approx. 1.7 real time DSR; 1.52 Woot-based DSR
91 (91) Unstealthiest Ninja 3 4 - at 4352. Approx. 99.86 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
92 (92) Cats Resume - at 4703. Approx. 106.1 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
93 (93) F This - at 2759. Approx. 43.85 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
94 (94) We Be Rollin' - at 1834. Approx. 36.79 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
95 (95) A Most Civilized Game - at 2004. Approx. 58.4 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
96 (96) Tough to Please - at 1097.

(T-minus 95 minutes)
Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - total quantity as of this posting. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (3) Thanks For All The Fish - at 4886. Approx. 58.42 real time DSR; 58.86 Woot-based DSR
2 (4) Star Powered - at 4346. Approx. 48.97 real time DSR; 49.37 Woot-based DSR
3 (1) The Formula For Success - at 11565. Approx. 33.23 real time DSR; 33.32 Woot-based DSR
4 (2) Family Breakfast - at 16234. Approx. 28.53 real time DSR; 28.61 Woot-based DSR
5 (12) The Keepers of the Word - at 0. Approx. -237.44 real time DSR; -239.04 Woot-based DSR
6 (5) Iron or Gold - at 2979. Approx. 19.06 real time DSR; 19.14 Woot-based DSR
7 (6) Leonardo - at 7435. Approx. 19.45 real time DSR; 19.5 Woot-based DSR
8 (7) Nightmeow on Elm Street - at 3086. Approx. 18.09 real time DSR; 18.14 Woot-based DSR
9 (8) Relative Dimensions - at 5504. Approx. 17.99 real time DSR; 18.04 Woot-based DSR
10 (10) Shhhhhhh - at 13074. Approx. 17.42 real time DSR; 17.46 Woot-based DSR
11 (9) Cheater - at 3333. Approx. 16.6 real time DSR; 16.64 Woot-based DSR
12 (11) The Binge - at 58906. Approx. 17.06 real time DSR; 17.11 Woot-based DSR
13 (24) Star Fishing - at 1237. Approx. 17.55 real time DSR; 17.73 Woot-based DSR
14 (15) Artichokey - at 4387. Approx. 14.92 real time DSR; 14.96 Woot-based DSR
15 (13) Nevermore - at 49001. Approx. 14.85 real time DSR; 14.89 Woot-based DSR
16 (17) 1971-Floppy Diskette - at 9851. Approx. 14.53 real time DSR; 14.57 Woot-based DSR
17 (18) Forever Toasty - at 1291. Approx. 14.14 real time DSR; 14.2 Woot-based DSR
18 (14) Graiiiinss - at 2367. Approx. 13.85 real time DSR; 13.89 Woot-based DSR
19 (21) Casual Friday - at 6621. Approx. 13.57 real time DSR; 13.61 Woot-based DSR
20 (22) Only Memories - at 3664. Approx. 13.32 real time DSR; 13.36 Woot-based DSR
21 (16) The Guy In The Apartment B - at 1742. Approx. 13.99 real time DSR; 14.06 Woot-based DSR
22 (20) One in Every Group - at 1392. Approx. 13.55 real time DSR; 13.6 Woot-based DSR
23 (23) Break Free - at 1261. Approx. 13.24 real time DSR; 13.31 Woot-based DSR
24 (19) Secret Love - at 1975. Approx. 12.34 real time DSR; 12.38 Woot-based DSR
25 (26) Preparing The Night - at 1129. Approx. 13.29 real time DSR; 13.41 Woot-based DSR
26 (25) A Day at the Loch - at 891. Approx. 10.24 real time DSR; 10.3 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) Overkill - at 294. Approx. 1.59 real time DSR; 1.6 Woot-based DSR
91 (91) Unstealthiest Ninja 3 4 - at 4445. Approx. 92.28 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
92 (92) Cats Resume - at 4770. Approx. 90.9 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
93 (93) F This - at 2780. Approx. 34.73 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
94 (94) We Be Rollin' - at 1853. Approx. 27.39 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
95 (95) A Most Civilized Game - at 2055. Approx. 45.78 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
96 (96) Tough to Please - at 1130. Approx. 20.92 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
97 (97) Settler Cats - at 2282. Approx. 62.31 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR

No guarantees that I'll be around to grab the numbers at the closing, so if one of you can, it'll be helpful.

Direct link to stats/discussion post.
1. Stats for Thanks For All The Fish
2. Stats for Star Powered
3. Stats for The Formula For Success
4. Stats for Family Breakfast
5. Stats for The Keepers of the Word
6. Stats for Iron or Gold
7. Stats for Leonardo
8. Stats for Nightmeow on Elm Street
9. Stats for Relative Dimensions
10. Stats for Shhhhhhh
11. Stats for Cheater
12. Stats for The Binge
13. Stats for Star Fishing
14. Stats for Artichokey
15. Stats for Nevermore
16. Stats for 1971-Floppy Diskette
17. Stats for Forever Toasty
18. Stats for Graiiiinss
19. Stats for Casual Friday
20. Stats for Only Memories
21. Stats for The Guy In The Apartment B
22. Stats for One in Every Group
23. Stats for Break Free
24. Stats for Secret Love
25. Stats for Preparing The Night
26. Stats for A Day at the Loch
27. Stats for Overkill
91. Stats for Unstealthiest Ninja 3 4
92. Stats for Cats Resume
93. Stats for F This
94. Stats for We Be Rollin'
95. Stats for A Most Civilized Game
96. Stats for Tough to Please
97. Stats for Settler Cats

grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote

Just popped for another copy of A Day At The Loch - I know it won't help it, but I wanted a second copy - it is SOOOO appropriate for where I teach, AND FINALLY bought a copy of One In Every Group - figured it was time to get off the fence on the FERRETWEASELWHATEVER shirt

citizencoyote


quality posts: 42 Private Messages citizencoyote
grahamcrackercoyote wrote:My couple of cents [sense? ] - TT's idea isn't rotten, but may not be necessary either. All the extra talk about mechanics - and it seems to have gone up - has happened since the changeover when numbers became scarce - once the numbers are once again easily accessible [I still have NO CLUE where they're getting the NUMBERS from AND I'm pretty good at surfing wonky websites] all the extra discussion should subside.

This thread has always been hidden pretty deep into things - you have to find the main Reckoning page and then make it all the way to the end of the list to notice the discussion - if you want more folks commenting, they have to know WHAT the Reckoning is and WHERE the Reckoning is [THIS has been fixed].

EDIT: NOW I know WHERE the numbers are after following Narfs next post!



I'm gonna vote with my name cousin here and say that while I don't think TT's idea is a bad one, I'm not sure it's necessary. Yes, the Reckoning discussion has become pretty wonky as of late, with lots of discussion of stats and methods. However, I think this may be a temporary thing, and once the website bugs are worked out we'll be back to our typical Reckoning discussions based on numbers and personal thoughts.

Woot has undergone major change in the past five months, and people are understandably rattled by it. I don't think we need to throw more change into the mix unless it becomes absolutely necessary.

As for the shirts on the chopping block, it's fun to see a little action around the line and throughout this week. Next week is going to be entertaining too, what with several strong contenders waiting in the wings!

rockymike


quality posts: 16 Private Messages rockymike
grahamcrackercoyote wrote: NOW I know WHERE the numbers are after following Narfs next post!



It still doesn't make sense for numbers to be where they are. You would think Sales Stats would be the logical place to put the most important stat of the sales.

EDIT: I am thankful the numbers appear somewhere

It would also make sense to place the sales number in the snapshot, replacing Speed to First Woot – since (to me) it only exists to gauge how well a shirt will do on debut day. (I may have ranted about this previously, and I apologize if I that's true).


And to preempt to obvious following comment, not that I send this comment to the Beta Feedback every couple days.

Yeah, so there's that...

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42

I'm not against breaking off Numbers discussion to a numbers thread, but I think we're going to see a lot of double posting.

In the last 3 months I've been hanging out here though I've found that for 100 posts we see in a week, 40 or so are numbers, 40 or so are off topic banter, and 20 are "will that shirt make it to monday" so we move the numbers and banter to a new thread, this one will be pretty dead.

What I'd love to see, if we get the time, is a Week by Week Projected Profit total using the numbers for blank costs that you guys apparently had. I'd be more than happy to compile a list of Shirt sales (first day and post days) for the approriate weeks if you'd give me the money numbers to go with them.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

wanderbug2


quality posts: 6 Private Messages wanderbug2

I am not a statistics type by any stretch. I'd probably give NPS fits with my confusion if I ever took one of her classes. So, actually I like reading the geeky stats discussion as I have actually learned a few things, and in a much more painless manner (for everyone involved) than if I inflicted a statistics class on myself.

I do think it's fairly relevant and it's easy to skim right over anything that isn't interesting-as we all do many times a day here and elsewhere anyhow.

loridi


quality posts: 5 Private Messages loridi

My 2 cents would be to keep the numbers here as I think it adds to the reconing discussion. Even when those numbers geeks are dving n the deep end. It never really goes off topic as sales is what drives the reckoning and it does help give people an idea of what they may need to buy NOW as it won't be around long.

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42

[s]Got the closing numbers, Need to clean the Sheet before I can post it.[s]

1. Thanks For All The Fish 4890
2. Star Powered 4346
3. The Formula For Success 11570
4. Family Breakfast 16235
5. The Keepers of the Word
6. Iron or Gold 2979
7. Leonardo 7435
8. Nightmeow on Elm Street 3088
9. Relative Dimensions 5508
10. Shhhhhhh 13075
11. The Binge 58907
12. Cheater 3332
13. Star Fishing 1237
14. Artichokey 4387
15. Nevermore < 49002
16. 1971-Floppy Diskette 9851
17. Forever Toasty 1292
18. Graiiiinss 2368
19. The Guy In The Apartment B 1745
20. Only Memories 3668
21. Casual Friday 6621
22. One in Every Group 1393
23. Break Free 1264
24. Secret Love 1977
25. Preparing The Night 1132
26. A Day at the Loch 895
27. Overkill 294


91. Unstealthiest Ninja 3 4 4450
92. Cats Resume 4771
93. F This 2781
94. We Be Rollin' 1855
95. A Most Civilized Game 3056
96. Tough to Please 1130
97. Settler Cats 2296

Apparently I missed Nevermore, and when I caught the ommission, there was a sale in the post close numbers. Not sure that matters, but there it is. Everything else is Accurate as of Noon Woot Server Time.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

grahamcrackercoyote


quality posts: 25 Private Messages grahamcrackercoyote
bounty42 wrote:[s] 15. Nevermore < 49002



I think this^ buys Nevermore another week whether you meant it as swipe against the shirt or not.

princessdiablo


quality posts: 1 Private Messages princessdiablo

As someone who reads these forums but doesn't post a lot, I absolutely love the numbers and would be sad to see them go. I fully support our stats geeks (although I admit I'm not truly sure why they put so much effort into this) and want them to continue to post here. Heck, I want them to post *more.*

Like fivethirtyeight, I do like when the posts have more words than numbers, but I get that asking for numbers AND analysis is a bit much for an unpaid hobby.

TheGolux


quality posts: 6 Private Messages TheGolux

Nevermore

Last Wooter to Woot: alianneb874
Last Purchase:3 hours ago
Order Pace:47m 9.447s
Woots Sold: 49001

I was thinking that Nevermore would be "Server Error" but I did catch it. Yuck, what a "thing" to catch....


And A Most Civilized Game had sales of 2056 not 3056

rockymike


quality posts: 16 Private Messages rockymike

So Patrickspens narrowly keeps his 118-week streak alive for another week. Though I think with his current derby entry he should be good for a while longer.

Yeah, so there's that...

gwendyw


quality posts: 8 Private Messages gwendyw
ThunderThighs wrote:Just tossing this out to see what y'all think.

What about creating a thread in World of Shirt.Woot for discussing the Reckoning stats, calculations, theories, and other such topics?

It would also let you continue the discussions from week to week rather than having to refer back to other threads.

That would leave this thread for the "Oooooh, will that shirt make it past Monday?" kinds of discussions.

Still post your sales numbers here, of course. I'm just thinking the raw math and statistically discussions.



Please don't. Between here and Deals I already spend waaay too much time I don't have on the Forums. I like being able to see the numbers (Ooo, Shiny!)* and read general Reckoning comments all at once. If you split the thread, I'll be less likely to follow either.

*And by Ooo, Shiny, I mean I have absolutle no advanced mathematical ability, but I like watching people that do at work. It's screamin' monkey sexy.

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
TheGolux wrote:Nevermore

Last Wooter to Woot: alianneb874
Last Purchase:3 hours ago
Order Pace:47m 9.447s
Woots Sold: 49001

I was thinking that Nevermore would be "Server Error" but I did catch it. Yuck, what a "thing" to catch....


And A Most Civilized Game had sales of 2056 not 3056



And my "Bounty Lives Type-os" streak continues. At least when I copy/paste teh shirt names I don't get any speeling errors.

I actually hit 9 or 10 500 error pages, and I HATE HATE HATE how they replace my link with the 500 error page, so I can't just reload the bloody thing. All the others I either caught on a reload, or they hadn't seen posting activity in 35+ minutes. I swiped Nevermore at 12:19, and it had last post in 9 minutes on it though

Thanks for the save.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
princessdiablo wrote:I fully support our stats geeks (although I admit I'm not truly sure why they put so much effort into this) and want them to continue to post here. Heck, I want them to post *more.*



I can't speak for the others, but I like knowing the how, and enjoy sharpening my skills on a problem where failure doesn't mean my boss gets involved.



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

renegadetim


quality posts: 12 Private Messages renegadetim
neuropsychosocial wrote:Renegadetim: I am no longer posting regularly on woot, but someone let me know that you'd responded to a previous post of mine and I might want to take a look. I think there are some significant misconception of my analysis in your post, so I hope that you'll forgive me for dropping by to clarify a few things, but not sticking around. I'll try to hew closely to "facts" versus "discussion" (or commentary) in offering a few clarifications.

Once again, you can't have it both ways: you're saying that it's unfair to compare sales because a year ago, some shirts were selling better than some shirts now. Yeah, that's pretty much what I said.

If you've taken any statistics, you're familiar with the concept of "correlation is not causation." Of all the posters on woot, I believe I don't cross that line. Some wooters, including some posters that I think I'm associated with, have insisted that the decrease in sales is the result of the change of blanks. I'm kinda wondering if you're conflating my analysis demonstrating correlation with the claims by others of causation, because you'd have to perform a personality transplant on me in order to get me to acknowledge that ANYTHING causes ANYTHING else.

(Oh, I guess I've said a few times that there must be something fundamentally wrong with me because anyone I care about ends up hurting me, resulting in this personality. I maintain that particular correlation must involve causation somehow, but I fully admit that I can't demonstrate it quantitatively!)

I hope that clears up a few things. I've been teaching long enough to know that I rarely explain things as clearly as I thought that I explained them so my apologies if I've made things worse instead of clearer.



I'm going to reply to you personally, to not congest this discussion.

However, my basic point was, that DESIGNS are what the main source of sales are on this site, and from the particular week I was looking at (same week, a year ago) there were some VERY popular DESIGNS.

I was just stating that while week vs week numbers are clearly a valid analysis point, it shouldn't stand as an argument for the blanks/redesign as I thought you may have been inferring (which was wrong of me to assume).

I appreciate your response, but not everyone is a student of yours, so try not to treat them as such. Thanks.

ThunderThighs


quality posts: 569 Private Messages ThunderThighs

Staff

Thank you all for your feedback. I appreciate your thoughts and respect your opinions. You each made great points. FWIW, I never considered moving the numbers themselves, just the long discussions on the science behind the numbers.

But as you brought up, they are probably best together and some of the lengthy posts about the calculations may taper off now that sales numbers are back.

So calculate and discuss away.





FORUM MODERATOR
To contact Customer Service, use the SUPPORT form at the top of every woot page
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bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
ThunderThighs wrote:
So calculate and discuss away.



Number's Guy would like to point out he's trying to calculate 5+5 with only 4 fingers on each hand....



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

ThunderThighs


quality posts: 569 Private Messages ThunderThighs

Staff

bounty42 wrote:Number's Guy would like to point out he's trying to calculate 5+5 with only 4 fingers on each hand....


Heh, that's what made me chuckle.



FORUM MODERATOR
To contact Customer Service, use the SUPPORT form at the top of every woot page
••• ► Woot's Return Policy ◄ ••• ► Did you check your spam/junk folders for a CS reply?
CANCEL?? How to cancel your order in the first 15 minutes!! - except Woot-Offs & expedited orders

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
renegadetim wrote:However, my basic point was, that DESIGNS are what the main source of sales are on this site, and from the particular week I was looking at (same week, a year ago) there were some VERY popular DESIGNS.

I was just stating that while week vs week numbers are clearly a valid analysis point, it shouldn't stand as an argument for the blanks/redesign as I thought you may have been inferring (which was wrong of me to assume).

I appreciate your response, but not everyone is a student of yours, so try not to treat them as such. Thanks.



In as much as selling a blank shirt every day wouldn't go well after a week you're probably right.

But how do you gauge 'popular'? You mention sellout, but if I remember correctly sellouts at that point were 3000. By that number we should have had 3 Sellouts this month. If you look at longevity:

>4 weeks: 14 -> 16
5-13 weeks: 5 -> 6
14-52 weeks: 4 -> 2
52+ weeks: 3 -> 2

They're about the same.

But even if we call that week an outlier, lets look at just 13 weeks ago: 4,608 sales, not including first days. What are we at for this month?

EDIT: 11,510, not including first day sales for a 3 week period. So we're down 17% from that point.

EDIT2: And as different I think these numbers are going to be (t-shirts sales are seasonal) The last 3 weeks before Price increase (12/27/11-1/16/12): 10,739



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

neuropsychosocial


quality posts: 171 Private Messages neuropsychosocial
renegadetim wrote:I appreciate your response, but not everyone is a student of yours, so try not to treat them as such. Thanks.

The only way in which I treated you as I treat my students is that I attempted to help you learn enough about statistical methods to identify the flaws in your argument for yourself and teach you some of the underlying principles of the science you're trying to do so that you could present your viewpoint in a manner consistent with the evidence (i.e., sales numbers) via valid methods (i.e., statistics). If you don't want to be taught, well, there's simply no way I can sugarcoat your argument to make it anything other than what it is. Your point is entirely dependent on recursively defining a variable: anything that is based on the measure you keep trying to claim is the "important" measure is utterly and completely bogus because the absolute fundamental, bedrock rule of numerical analysis is how you operationalize your variable: to do so irriterative or recursively means that subsequent analysis is meaningless.

Statistics is a science. This is not a situation where everyone's opinion is equally valid: a recursively or iteratively operationalized variable is going to generate meaningless results. There is no way to make this fact be anything other than true.

This is not the kind of post that I usually make and I feel really, really weird posting this without explaining any of the terms that I'm using, but renegradetim specifically requested that I not treat him like a student. I feel like it would be condescending to go against his specific request and "teach" in any way, but I apologize to everyone else. One of the things that I like best about this thread is how much we teach and learn from each other. I've mentioned recently how little I understood about t-shirts and the t-shirt business a year ago, and I'm deeply appreciative that Narfcake has taken so much time - and so much time :p - to teach us/me about that. The Golux is another numbersy woman, a few years older than me, who has been a great role model (that I lacked) for how to be a successfully, sexy, saucy geeky-numbers-woman. It goes on and on... so it was nice to read a few posts today from others saying that they've learned some stuff about statistics and numerical analysis from our posts. Thank you guys, and please know that I've equally enjoyed learning from you all.

RIP A.A. Blanks (Obituary)

aerc712


quality posts: 4 Private Messages aerc712
renegadetim wrote:
I appreciate your response, but not everyone is a student of yours, so try not to treat them as such. Thanks.



That is something I've come across with all of the number discussions that have gone on.

I understand a lot of work goes into calculating all of the various stats that are here, but I think it would be helpful if all of the numbers folks were a bit more patient and less likely to sound like a scolding teacher with those of us who might not necessarily follow all of the steps. That is why I did like TT's suggestion of maybe splitting things up a bit. The reckoning threads now aren't what I remember from a few months ago. Reading through the posts, many of them make me feel like I'm in a math class but missed a few lessons so I'm behind. I respect what teachers do, have a bunch in the family, but not everyone wants to sit through a math class when discussing the reckoning.

Again, I do understand it takes a lot of time to put those numbers together. It was nice to be able to refer to them when speculating which shirts would be safe or not. The extra explanations, however, seem to be a bit like a lecture at times. Really, how much fun can people have when sitting and listening to a lecture?

yellowflower


quality posts: 3 Private Messages yellowflower

Personally, I prefer the teaching lecture posts. I don't generally comment on these types of threads, because not being one of the math geeks, I don't really have anything constructive to add. But I do like reading them, and learning new things. Just from the posts in this thread... the "teaching" one I read all the way through, even though I don't have any sort of intense, burning desire to learn about statistics. The second one I found myself struggling not to skip over, because I didn't understand what was going on.

I understand that it might come off as condescending to some people, but I don't see it that way. I'd prefer to keep seeing you "dumb it down" (ie:teach) for those of us who are bad at numbers but enjoy following the conversation.

Thanks.

Edit to add: I realize this is old. I wanted to say it anyway.

bounty42


quality posts: 15 Private Messages bounty42
yellowflower wrote:Thanks.

Edit to add: I realize this is old. I wanted to say it anyway.



NECROTHREAD!!! Who's got the Shotgun? We need a head shot over here!!
B) :P



Numquam minoris aestimo potentia stultis, maxime in magna coetus
------------------------------------
■(1:40 PM, 7/27/2012) bounty42 quips, "Forget Guest Editor, what we need is a Guest Rejectionator."
■(10:40 AM, 6/21/2012 ) bounty42 inquires, "Is it just me, or do we not typically get this many Editors Choice shirts?"
■(2:02 PM, 6/15/2012) bounty42 runs numbers.
■(10:40 AM, 6/7/2012) bounty42 dispenses wisdom for all those 'too late' naysayers, "A woot shirt is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."
■(3:20 PM, 5/18/2012) bounty42 states, "The turtle is very cute, and I love the smug look he's got."

yellowflower


quality posts: 3 Private Messages yellowflower
bounty42 wrote:NECROTHREAD!!! Who's got the Shotgun? We need a head shot over here!!
B) :P



Wait, is there even such a thing as thread necroing here? I didn't even realize there was a place where this could go back to the top of... I kind of just keep following a white rabbit through a variety of magical (and sometimes slightly disturbing) threads...