Shirt.Woot

Welcome to Reckoning 284! Congratulations to this week's two new veterans, Wrinkled, In Time and Tesla Tech. A shirt's fourth week on the Reckoning is often treacherous as it loses its strong first week of sales: so far, Wrinkled, In Time has survived RoyalBlueBlankGate2012, but can Tesla Tech handle the pressure of a second Tesla shirt?

With holiday sales officially off-the-books and all but one of the Christmas-themed shirts departed from the Reckoning, will this week see a return to tradition or will new designs shake up the standings? Can Procrastination University regain the #1 spot and continue its quest to unseat The Binge for a record number of weeks at #1? Can Unstealthiest Ninja 3 hang on another week - or will it fall to the curse of "the oldest shirt on the Reckoning not featuring a passed-out Muppet or a monomaniacal bird"?

Stay tuned for another week of victory, loss, and t-shirts as Reckoning 284 unfolds!

Legend: (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - baseline sales numbers.
(1) Science Rules! - 2838
(2) Procrastination University - 10666
(3) Serotonin & the Dopamines - 2476
(4) Team Tesla - 2396
(5) Penguin Suit - 2748
(6) I Love Books - 2443
(7) Wrinkled, In Time - 1701
(8) Past Your Bedtime - 3040
(9) Wishful Thinking - 9373
(10) Childish Side of the Moon - 1774
(11) More Than Just Bacon - 1998
(12) Nidhogg - 2223
(13) Nevermore - 53571
(14) The Binge - 63869
(15) Tesla Tech - 3299
(16) Consider Yourself Warned - 9029
(17) Still Alive - 1290
(18) Victory through Chaos - 1779
(19) Console Wars - 4973
(20) The One Shirt - 6100
(21) Unstealthiest Ninja 3 - 11966
(22) Dine-o-saurs - 1219
(23) Indubiously - 4106
(24) CELEBRATE! CELEBRATE! - 5460
(25) The S'mores - 1003
(26) The Flux Ambassadors! - 691
(27) String Theory - 626

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting. Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (3) Serotonin & the Dopamines - (+40) to 2516. Approx. 56.66 real time DSR; 21.37 Woot-based DSR
2 (2) Procrastination University - (+17) to 10683. Approx. 22.14 real time DSR; 17.46 Woot-based DSR
3 (1) Science Rules! - (+20) to 2858. Approx. 29.2 real time DSR; 18.73 Woot-based DSR
4 (4) Team Tesla - (+17) to 2413. Approx. 24.31 real time DSR; 15.03 Woot-based DSR
5 (5) Penguin Suit - (+22) to 2770. Approx. 27.34 real time DSR; 14.4 Woot-based DSR
6 (6) I Love Books - (+21) to 2464. Approx. 19.07 real time DSR; 12.97 Woot-based DSR
7 (7) Wrinkled, In Time - (+17) to 1718. Approx. 77.8 real time DSR; 61.36 Woot-based DSR
8 (8) Past Your Bedtime - (+11) to 3051. Approx. 14.22 real time DSR; 11.21 Woot-based DSR
9 (9) Wishful Thinking - (+13) to 9386. Approx. 13.95 real time DSR; 11 Woot-based DSR
10 (10) Childish Side of the Moon - (+11) to 1785. Approx. 14.67 real time DSR; 11.4 Woot-based DSR
11 (11) More Than Just Bacon - (+18) to 2016. Approx. 15.66 real time DSR; 11.35 Woot-based DSR
12 (12) Nidhogg - (+14) to 2237. Approx. 11.96 real time DSR; 9.43 Woot-based DSR
13 (13) Nevermore - (+12) to 53583. Approx. 11.55 real time DSR; 9.11 Woot-based DSR
14 (14) The Binge - (+12) to 63881. Approx. 11.19 real time DSR; 8.82 Woot-based DSR
15 (15) Tesla Tech - (+12) to 3311. Approx. 149.94 real time DSR; 118.25 Woot-based DSR
16 (16) Consider Yourself Warned - (+14) to 9043. Approx. 11.09 real time DSR; 8.75 Woot-based DSR
17 (17) Still Alive - (+4) to 1294. Approx. 12.22 real time DSR; 8.51 Woot-based DSR
18 (18) Victory through Chaos - (+11) to 1790. Approx. 20.08 real time DSR; 8.76 Woot-based DSR
19 (19) Console Wars - (+10) to 4983. Approx. 9.56 real time DSR; 7.54 Woot-based DSR
20 (20) The One Shirt - (+9) to 6109. Approx. 9.6 real time DSR; 7.57 Woot-based DSR
21 (21) Unstealthiest Ninja 3 - (+11) to 11977. Approx. 21.19 real time DSR; 16.71 Woot-based DSR
22 (22) Dine-o-saurs - (+6) to 1225. Approx. 14.87 real time DSR; 7.22 Woot-based DSR
23 (23) Indubiously - (+8) to 4114. Approx. 8.56 real time DSR; 6.75 Woot-based DSR
24 (24) CELEBRATE! CELEBRATE! - (+16) to 5476. Approx. 7.97 real time DSR; 6.29 Woot-based DSR
25 (25) The S'mores - (+8) to 1011. Approx. 16.26 real time DSR; 4.94 Woot-based DSR
26 (26) The Flux Ambassadors! - (+15) to 706. Approx. 18.96 real time DSR; 4 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) String Theory - (+8) to 634. Approx. 6.46 real time DSR; 3.63 Woot-based DSR
91 (91) Darwin's Delight - (+14) to 622. Approx. 24.03 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR

The DSR for Unstealthiest Ninja 3 is obviously out-of-line for 21st place. The Unstealthiest Ninja Woot Plus sale occurred the week of December 26th; it sold 300 items that week; for comparison, every other shirt selling less than 103 items except Procrastination University (172) and Wrinkled, In Time (135) (which had been "sold out" from its debut day to December 26th). It's going to be hard to track Unstealthiest Ninja 3 relative to the 20th and 22nd place shirts, but it will be a shame if it ends up being Reckoned because people bought it on hoodies and long-sleeve shirts instead of short-sleeve shirts that would count towards Reckoning standings. Ironically, Unstealthiest Ninja 1 was Reckoned under similar circumstances!

Congrats to our new #1 shirt!

Spiritgreen wrote:Congrats to our new #1 shirt!

It's a happy shirt!

Somehow I doubt that most of the blank flanks from this current week will debut highly or survive their reckoning. Surprising to see so many low sales numbers so many days in a row.

Hopefully UnNinja 3 can survive this week. And I was surprised to see Tesla Tech drop so drastically.

tjschaeffer wrote:Somehow I doubt that most of the n00bs from this current week will debut highly or survive their reckoning. Surprising to see so many low sales numbers so many days in a row.

Tastes have always varied a lot here at shirt, and has for years.

Nonetheless, for a multitude of reasons, sales are definitely down compared to a year ago. Indeed, it's been just over a year since the price increase, which was just one of several significant changes that have since occurred here ...

Hopefully UnNinja 3 can survive this week. And I was surprised to see Tesla Tech drop so drastically.

Neuro explains their situations in her posts above.

With that said, it's extremely unlikely that I'll repeat the last-minute purchases I did for the flaming UnNinja; heck, I still haven't committed on a couple shirts from the Mentions of Honor side sale. Indeed, my first shirt purchase of this year will be BootsBoots' doggie shirt. All that is a far cry from this time last year, in which I was already +12 at shirt.woot alone.

Narfcake wrote:With that said, it's extremely unlikely that I'll repeat the last-minute purchases I did for the flaming UnNinja; heck, I still haven't committed on a couple shirts from the Mentions of Honor side sale. Indeed, my first shirt purchase of this year will be BootsBoots' doggie shirt. All that is a far cry from this time last year, in which I was already +12 at shirt.woot alone.

I'm not sure that saying you bought 12 or more shirts during the first 18 days of 2012 strengthens your argument. But as you know, I'm proud of you.

Narfcake wrote:Nonetheless, for a multitude of reasons, sales are definitely down compared to a year ago. Indeed, it's been just over a year since the price increase, which was just one of several significant changes that have since occurred here ...

Because I am procrastinating on something important that I really need to do, I clicked on the link Narfcake provided and skimmed the first page of the thread discussing the price increase. Knowing how things have played out over the past year, these two comments particularly grabbed my attention:

ramyb wrote:I'm curious to see what kind of impact we are going to see on overall sales in the next few weeks. I assume there will be at least a small cut to the number of first day sales, which will hopefully be outweighed by the increase in profit for woot.

What I'm more concerned about, though, is the impact on the reckoning. The purpose of increasing the sales cap to 6000 was to increase the number of first-time buyers, and this price increase seems like it would have the opposite effect. In addition, shirts in reckoning always sell better on days that have a successful shirt on the front page. With a cut to first-day sales, I wonder if there will also be an overall cut to reckoning sales. On the other hand, the $12 price is closer to the $15 for reckoning, so potentially it will be easier to justify the extra cost after the first day.

Obviously it will take some time to determine what this change will mean. Woot's shirts have always been great quality, and are well worth it even at the $15 mark- hopefully people will continue to see it that way.

citizencoyote wrote:As Ramy pointed out, I think we'll see a drop in the number of shirts bought on the first day. $10 was a terrific price for a good design, $15 is still a good price. I feel the gap between great shirts and so-so shirts will increase, however. Even a $2 increase will probably turn some people off from buying a borderline shirt they may have been willing to drop $10 on.

Of course, there have been several significant changes over the past year and it's impossible (even statistically) to determine cause-and-effect. That being said, I suspect Ramy and CitizenCoyote were onto something.

Congratulations to Unstealthiest Ninja 3 for crossing 12,000 sales and to Console Wars for crossing 5,000!

Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting. Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers. DSR are for informational purposes only and not 100% accurate.
1 (3) Serotonin & the Dopamines - (+148) to 2624. Approx. 44.43 real time DSR; 32.74 Woot-based DSR
2 (2) Procrastination University - (+94) to 10760. Approx. 22.2 real time DSR; 20.21 Woot-based DSR
3 (1) Science Rules! - (+67) to 2905. Approx. 25.43 real time DSR; 21.58 Woot-based DSR
4 (4) Team Tesla - (+75) to 2471. Approx. 22.39 real time DSR; 18.77 Woot-based DSR
5 (5) Penguin Suit - (+71) to 2819. Approx. 22.9 real time DSR; 18.32 Woot-based DSR
6 (6) I Love Books - (+52) to 2495. Approx. 16.94 real time DSR; 14.65 Woot-based DSR
7 (7) Wrinkled, In Time - (+62) to 1763. Approx. 69.14 real time DSR; 62.96 Woot-based DSR
8 (8) Past Your Bedtime - (+60) to 3100. Approx. 14.24 real time DSR; 12.96 Woot-based DSR
9 (9) Wishful Thinking - (+63) to 9436. Approx. 14.04 real time DSR; 12.79 Woot-based DSR
10 (10) Childish Side of the Moon - (+45) to 1819. Approx. 14 real time DSR; 12.68 Woot-based DSR
11 (11) More Than Just Bacon - (+43) to 2041. Approx. 14.16 real time DSR; 12.51 Woot-based DSR
12 (18) Victory through Chaos - (+52) to 1831. Approx. 16.63 real time DSR; 12.67 Woot-based DSR
13 (12) Nidhogg - (+61) to 2284. Approx. 12.2 real time DSR; 11.11 Woot-based DSR
14 (13) Nevermore - (+56) to 53627. Approx. 11.73 real time DSR; 10.68 Woot-based DSR
15 (14) The Binge - (+45) to 63914. Approx. 10.98 real time DSR; 10 Woot-based DSR
16 (16) Consider Yourself Warned - (+45) to 9074. Approx. 10.82 real time DSR; 9.86 Woot-based DSR
17 (17) Still Alive - (+32) to 1322. Approx. 11.41 real time DSR; 9.95 Woot-based DSR
18 (15) Tesla Tech - (+33) to 3332. Approx. 130.67 real time DSR; 119 Woot-based DSR
19 (22) Dine-o-saurs - (+31) to 1250. Approx. 12 real time DSR; 9.39 Woot-based DSR
20 (21) Unstealthiest Ninja 3 - (+51) to 12017. Approx. 19.92 real time DSR; 18.14 Woot-based DSR
21 (19) Console Wars - (+40) to 5013. Approx. 9.45 real time DSR; 8.61 Woot-based DSR
22 (20) The One Shirt - (+35) to 6135. Approx. 9.33 real time DSR; 8.5 Woot-based DSR
23 (23) Indubiously - (+30) to 4136. Approx. 8.27 real time DSR; 7.54 Woot-based DSR
24 (25) The S'mores - (+38) to 1041. Approx. 12 real time DSR; 8.47 Woot-based DSR
25 (24) CELEBRATE! CELEBRATE! - (+18) to 5478. Approx. 6.98 real time DSR; 6.36 Woot-based DSR
26 (26) The Flux Ambassadors! - (+37) to 728. Approx. 10.4 real time DSR; 6.93 Woot-based DSR
27 (27) String Theory - (+15) to 641. Approx. 5.09 real time DSR; 4.15 Woot-based DSR
91 (91) Darwin's Delight - (+41) to 649. Approx. 10.25 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
92 (92) D-D-D-Danger - (+17) to 293. Approx. 5.67 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
93 (93) Tough Cookie and Leche Libre - (+16) to 295. Approx. 8 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
94 (94) 20,000 Leagues Above the Cretaceous - (+6) to 175. Approx. 6 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
95 (95) Fly Away - (+2) to 665.

Well, I guess the unninja survived. And like I said previously, looking at this week's sales numbers (ouch) I don't know that any of this week's shirts will survive the reckoning.

What's sad is that the last derby produced some really well done designs, but I'm not sure that artsy, non-pop-culture designs can really sell well any more. When neither patrickspens nor walmazan can break 1000 1st day sales for derby designs, something is amiss.

Part of me wonders whether the online t-shirt business is reaching saturation. It seems like there must be a million different sites out there now, most of which are selling some sort of pop-culture mashup (check out my sonic the hedgehog/sailor moon mashup on qualitee.com!... or something like that). Too much competition leads to everyone getting such a small piece of the pie that no matter how efficiently you run you cannot survive without hitting the sales numbers necessary to break even.

Closing numbers as of 2:00PM woot time:
Legend: Current rank (Baseline rank) Shirt Name - (Additional sales) and total quantity as of this posting . Refer to the beginning of this reckoning for the baseline sales numbers.
1 (3) Serotonin & the Dopamines - (+202) to 2678
2 (2) Procrastination University - (+134) to 10800
3 (1) Science Rules! - (+86) to 2924
4 (4) Team Tesla - (+104) to 2500
5 (5) Penguin Suit - (+90) to 2838
6 (6) I Love Books - (+74) to 2517
7 (7) Wrinkled, In Time - (+82) to 1783
8 (9) Wishful Thinking - (+87) to 9460
9 (8) Past Your Bedtime - (+92) to 3132
10 (18) Victory through Chaos - (+76) to 1855
11 (11) More Than Just Bacon - (+63) to 2061
6 (10) Childish Side of the Moon - (+55) to 1829
13 (12) Nidhogg - (+97) to 2320
14 (13) Nevermore - (+77) to 53648
15 (14) The Binge - (+71) to 63940
16 (22) Dine-o-saurs - (+56) to 1275
17 (17) Still Alive - (+53) to 1343
18 (16) Consider Yourself Warned - (+69) to 9098
19 (15) Tesla Tech - (+46) to 3345
20 (21) Unstealthiest Ninja 3 - (+86) to 12052
21 (19) Console Wars - (+61) to 5034
22 (20) The One Shirt - (+64) to 6164
23 (25) The S'mores - (+55) to 1058
24 (23) Indubiously - (+45) to 4151
25 (26) The Flux Ambassadors! - (+51) to 742
26 (24) CELEBRATE! CELEBRATE! - (+29) to 5489
27 (27) String Theory - (+27) to 653
91 (91) Darwin's Delight - (+59) to 667
92 (92) D-D-D-Danger - (+24) to 300
93 (93) Tough Cookie and Leche Libre - (+19) to 298
94 (94) 20,000 Leagues Above the Cretaceous - (+10) to 179
95 (95) Fly Away - (+24) to 687
96 (96) Immortal Falls - (+51) to 994
97 (97) Impossibly Delicious - (+8) to 274

tjschaeffer wrote:Well, I guess the unninja survived. And like I said previously, looking at this week's sales numbers (ouch) I don't know that any of this week's shirts will survive the reckoning.

What's sad is that the last derby produced some really well done designs, but I'm not sure that artsy, non-pop-culture designs can really sell well any more. When neither patrickspens nor walmazan can break 1000 1st day sales for derby designs, something is amiss.

Part of me wonders whether the online t-shirt business is reaching saturation. It seems like there must be a million different sites out there now, most of which are selling some sort of pop-culture mashup (check out my sonic the hedgehog/sailor moon mashup on qualitee.com!... or something like that). Too much competition leads to everyone getting such a small piece of the pie that no matter how efficiently you run you cannot survive without hitting the sales numbers necessary to break even.

This was a super-ouchy week. Has there ever been a week with four Raritees? (And welcome to the illustrious pool of Raritees artists, Patrick! Cookies on the right, haters on the left, Reckoning straight ahead.) Throw in Wirdou's awfully-similar-to-tjost's work, Walmazan admitting that he changed his winning design between submitting it to the Derby and submitting the print-ready file, and a whole bunch of stolen and obviously-photos entries to the current Derby... this week has left a bad taste in my mouth.

You make an interesting point about saturation of the online t-shirt market. I think we may also be seeing some of what CitizenCoyote postulated about the price increase (in the quote I posted earlier this week) that $10 versus $12 will have a greater impact on "marginal" designs. I feel like we've seen a dichotomy in sales: shirts tend to do very well or not-so-well, with few shirts selling ~2,000 copies and being on the Reckoning for 2-3 weeks.

I haven't looked at the "cold, heartless numbers," so this is just a guess: I think UnNinja will be higher in the Reckoning next week. It will lose the week of sales that include the UnNinja Woot Plus sale; I don't know how many copies it sold as t-shirts that week, but I wouldn't be surprised if folks chose long-sleeve or hoodie versions in December when presented the option.

During the week, I'd noticed that the DSRs for the two new veterans were off, but I had a busy week and figured I'd investigate "later." In making the spreadsheet for next week, I discovered my error: DSRs for both shirts were based on all sales since their debut, including first day sales and their first week of sales. My apologies! Here are the DSRs as of 2:00PM woot time:
Daily Sales Rates are for informational purposes only and are not 100% accurate.
1. Serotonin & the Dopamines - Approx. 38.09 real time DSR; 38.42 Woot-based DSR
2. Procrastination University - Approx. 21.58 real time DSR; 21.64 Woot-based DSR
3. Science Rules! - Approx. 22.61 real time DSR; 22.73 Woot-based DSR
4. Team Tesla - Approx. 20.54 real time DSR; 20.65 Woot-based DSR
5. Penguin Suit - Approx. 19.71 real time DSR; 19.84 Woot-based DSR
6. I Love Books - Approx. 15.77 real time DSR; 15.84 Woot-based DSR
7. Wrinkled, In Time - Approx. 14.49 real time DSR; 14.54 Woot-based DSR
8. Wishful Thinking - Approx. 13.6 real time DSR; 13.64 Woot-based DSR
9. Past Your Bedtime - Approx. 14.07 real time DSR; 14.11 Woot-based DSR
10. Victory through Chaos - Approx. 14.84 real time DSR; 14.95 Woot-based DSR
11. More Than Just Bacon - Approx. 13.39 real time DSR; 13.44 Woot-based DSR
6. Childish Side of the Moon - Approx. 13.02 real time DSR; 13.06 Woot-based DSR
13. Nidhogg - Approx. 12.36 real time DSR; 12.39 Woot-based DSR
14. Nevermore - Approx. 11.39 real time DSR; 11.43 Woot-based DSR
15. The Binge - Approx. 10.9 real time DSR; 10.93 Woot-based DSR
16. Dine-o-saurs - Approx. 11.48 real time DSR; 11.57 Woot-based DSR
17. Still Alive - Approx. 10.98 real time DSR; 11.03 Woot-based DSR
18. Consider Yourself Warned - Approx. 10.68 real time DSR; 10.71 Woot-based DSR
19. Tesla Tech - Approx. 9.9 real time DSR; 9.93 Woot-based DSR
20. Unstealthiest Ninja 3 - Approx. 19.34 real time DSR; 19.39 Woot-based DSR
21. Console Wars - Approx. 9.33 real time DSR; 9.36 Woot-based DSR
22. The One Shirt - Approx. 9.51 real time DSR; 9.54 Woot-based DSR
23. The S'mores - Approx. 10.37 real time DSR; 10.47 Woot-based DSR
24. Indubiously - Approx. 8.05 real time DSR; 8.07 Woot-based DSR
25. The Flux Ambassadors! - Approx. 8.7 real time DSR; 8.8 Woot-based DSR
26. CELEBRATE! CELEBRATE! - Approx. 6.73 real time DSR; 6.75 Woot-based DSR
27. String Theory - Approx. 5.01 real time DSR; 5.04 Woot-based DSR
91. Darwin's Delight - Approx. 8.96 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
92. D-D-D-Danger - Approx. 4.3 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
93. Tough Cookie and Leche Libre - Approx. 4.15 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
94. 20,000 Leagues Above the Cretaceous - Approx. 2.79 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
95. Fly Away - Approx. 9.29 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
96. Immortal Falls - Approx. 32.22 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR
97. Impossibly Delicious - Approx. 13.73 real time DSR; n/a Woot-based DSR

neuropsychosocial wrote:This was a super-ouchy week. Has there ever been a week with four Raritees? (And welcome to the illustrious pool of Raritees artists, Patrick! Cookies on the right, haters on the left, Reckoning straight ahead.) Throw in Wirdou's awfully-similar-to-tjost's work, Walmazan admitting that he changed his winning design between submitting it to the Derby and submitting the print-ready file, and a whole bunch of stolen and obviously-photos entries to the current Derby... this week has left a bad taste in my mouth.

Definitely quite a bit of ick this week. I won't comment on some of the stuff, but I think the whole "people posting stolen artwork" is most irksome.

neuropsychosocial wrote:
You make an interesting point about saturation of the online t-shirt market. I think we may also be seeing some of what CitizenCoyote postulated about the price increase (in the quote I posted earlier this week) that $10 versus $12 will have a greater impact on "marginal" designs. I feel like we've seen a dichotomy in sales: shirts tend to do very well or not-so-well, with few shirts selling ~2,000 copies and being on the Reckoning for 2-3 weeks.

Yeah, that's a very valid point. There seems lately to be missing anything selling in the 1000-2000 first day range. It's either sub 1000 or above 2000. In other words a design is either not popular or it is popular. I think the price point difference is a valid one.